Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market where you can trade on real-world events—elections, economic data, weather, and more. Unlike traditional betting, Kalshi lets you buy and sell contracts that pay out based on whether an event happens.
This guide shows you how to actually make money on Kalshi, not just place bets.
How Kalshi works
Every Kalshi contract is a yes/no question. You buy "Yes" if you think the event will happen, "No" if you think it won't. Prices range from $0.01 to $0.99, reflecting the market's implied probability.
Example: If "Fed raises rates in January" trades at $0.65, the market thinks there's a 65% chance it happens. If you buy Yes at $0.65 and it resolves Yes, you get $1.00—a $0.35 profit per contract.
Where the edge comes from
To profit consistently, you need an edge—a reason the market price is wrong. Here's where edges come from on Kalshi:
- Information timing: You react to news faster than the market reprices.
- Better models: Your probability estimate is more accurate than the crowd's.
- Cross-platform gaps: Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on the same event.
- Resolution edge: You understand the contract rules better than other traders.
Strategy 1: News-driven trading
Markets reprice when new information drops. The faster you connect a headline to an affected market, the better your entry.
How Alphascope helps: Our News feed automatically links breaking stories to impacted Kalshi and Polymarket contracts. Instead of scanning headlines and guessing which markets move, you see the connection instantly—with AI-scored impact ratings.
Practical workflow:
- Watch the Alphascope news feed for high-impact stories.
- Click through to the linked Kalshi market.
- Check if the price has already moved. If not, you may have an edge.
- Size small—news edges are fast but noisy.
Strategy 2: Cross-platform comparison
The same event often trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. When prices diverge, one of them is wrong.
Example: "Trump wins 2024" at 52% on Kalshi but 48% on Polymarket. If you believe the contracts are equivalent, you can buy the cheaper side and sell the expensive side (or just take the better price).
Alphascope approach: Our Predictions page shows markets from both platforms side-by-side. You can filter by event type and spot divergences without tab-switching.
Strategy 3: Catalyst calendars
Many Kalshi markets are tied to scheduled events: CPI releases, Fed meetings, earnings dates, court rulings. The edge comes from positioning before the catalyst and understanding the possible outcomes.
Steps:
- Identify the next catalyst (e.g., jobs report on Friday).
- Model the distribution of outcomes (consensus, range, tail risks).
- Compare your estimate to the current market price.
- If the market underweights a scenario, take the position.
Resolution rules matter
Kalshi contracts have specific resolution sources and edge cases. Before trading, confirm:
- Which source resolves the contract (BLS, NOAA, AP, etc.)?
- What happens if the data is revised or delayed?
- Are there carve-outs (e.g., "excluding X")?
Many losing trades come from misunderstanding the contract, not the event.
Sizing and risk
Even good edges lose sometimes. Practical sizing rules:
- Small size on news trades (high variance, fast decay).
- Bigger size when you have multiple confirmations (cross-market divergence + catalyst + primary source).
- Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Kalshi markets can gap on surprise outcomes.
Using Alphascope for Kalshi trading
Alphascope is built to give you an edge on prediction markets:
- News → AI-linked breaking news with impacted markets and impact scores.
- Predictions → Browse Kalshi and Polymarket side-by-side, sorted by activity.
- Coming soon: Alerts for cross-platform divergence and catalyst events.
The goal is simple: spend less time searching and more time trading with an edge.
FAQ
Is Kalshi legal?
Yes. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market (DCM). US residents can trade legally.
How much money do I need to start?
Kalshi has no minimum deposit. You can start with $20–$50 to learn the mechanics before sizing up.
What's the difference between Kalshi and Polymarket?
Kalshi is US-regulated and uses USD. Polymarket is offshore and uses USDC (crypto). Kalshi has tighter spreads on some events; Polymarket has deeper liquidity on others.
Can I lose more than I invest?
No. Kalshi contracts are capped at $1.00. Your max loss is the price you paid.
How do I withdraw profits?
Kalshi supports ACH and wire transfers. Withdrawals typically process in 1–3 business days.