How to read market-moving news
Prediction markets often move faster than traditional commentary because traders can immediately express a view in price. A headline that changes the odds may be meaningful, but the important question is whether the headline changes the contract's actual resolution probability. Some stories affect the outcome directly. Others only affect sentiment, liquidity, or short-term positioning.
Alphascope links news to affected markets so traders can move from a headline to the relevant contract. That saves time, but it also adds a responsibility: verify the link between the story and the resolution rule. A poll can matter for an election market, a court filing can matter for a legal market, and an economic release can matter for a macro market. A general opinion piece may be less important unless it changes trader behavior or points to new evidence.
Separating catalysts from noise
A durable catalyst usually changes the probability of settlement, not just the conversation around the event. For example, an official data release, candidate withdrawal, injury report, regulatory filing, exchange announcement, or verified policy statement can directly affect a contract. A rumor, social media clip, or vague preview may still move the price, but it deserves a lower confidence weight until confirmed by a source tied to the market's resolution criteria.
When a story appears on this page, compare the affected markets with related contracts. If only one thin market moved, the change may be a liquidity event. If several related markets moved together, the market may be repricing the theme. If a market did not move at all, traders may have already expected the news or may believe it does not affect settlement.
Using news with odds and forecasts
News is the catalyst layer, odds are the consensus layer, and AI forecasts are the research layer. Use all three before deciding whether a price is stale. Open the market from a news card, compare the live Yes probability with the AI forecast, and review any related markets in the same category. This sequence helps prevent a common mistake: trading the headline after the market has already priced it.
The goal is not to trade every story. The goal is to identify the few stories that change the fair probability more than the current price reflects. Those opportunities are rare, and they usually require checking timing, source quality, liquidity, and contract wording. This page is designed to make that workflow crawlable, visible, and easier to repeat.
How to prioritize the news feed
Start with stories that have multiple impacted markets or a direct connection to a resolution source. Those stories are more likely to matter than general commentary because they can change the actual probability of settlement. Then look at timing. News that arrives before a scheduled data release, debate, game, court hearing, or policy decision may be more actionable than news that confirms what the market already expected.
The next filter is price reaction. If the market moved sharply, ask whether the move is justified. If the market barely moved, ask whether traders missed the story or whether the story is not relevant enough to change the odds. Both cases can be useful, but they require different follow-up. A sharp move needs overreaction checks; a quiet move needs relevance checks.
Why source quality matters
Source quality changes how much weight a story deserves. Official releases, primary documents, reputable data providers, and direct statements from decision makers generally deserve more weight than commentary, anonymous claims, or summaries of summaries. Prediction markets can react to all of them, but the settlement value usually depends on the strongest verifiable source.
When the source is weak, use the news item as a watchlist trigger rather than a trade signal. Open the market, read the contract, and wait for stronger confirmation. When the source is strong and the market response is still small, the story may deserve deeper review because the odds may not have fully adjusted.