Enter your trade details to calculate potential profit, maximum loss, and ROI on Kalshi or Polymarket event contracts.
How Prediction Market Profits Work
On prediction markets, you buy contracts between $0.01 and $0.99. If you're right, each contract pays $1.00. Your profit is $1.00 minus what you paid, multiplied by the number of contracts.
Example
Buy 100 Yes contracts at $0.35 each = $35 cost. If the event happens, you get $100 payout = $65 profit (186% ROI). If it doesn't happen, you lose your $35.
Using the Calculator Before a Trade
Use profit math before comparing markets, not after you already like a headline. A low-priced contract can look attractive because the possible return is large, but the real question is whether the implied probability is lower than your own forecast after fees, spreads, and settlement risk.
For active Kalshi and Polymarket markets, check the current price, your planned contract count, and the maximum amount you are willing to lose. Then compare the payout against related markets and news catalysts before deciding whether the risk is worth taking.
How the prediction market profit calculator fits into prediction market research
A prediction market tool is useful when it makes the trade decision more explicit. Calculators, trackers, and AI research pages should not replace the core market checks: current price, implied probability, settlement language, liquidity, spread, related contracts, and the news catalyst behind the move. The tool should make those checks faster and harder to skip.
Use the prediction market profit calculator before you place risk, not after the trade is already emotional. Convert the price into probability, compare the possible payout with the maximum loss, and decide whether the expected edge is still meaningful after fees and slippage. If the market is thin, reduce confidence in the displayed price until you know your entry can fill.
Connecting tools with live odds
The most common mistake is using a tool in isolation. A profitable looking payout may still be a bad trade if the probability is too low. A high probability may still be unattractive if the return is small or the market is hard to resolve. After using the tool, open the live odds board and compare the market with related contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Alphascope connects tools with market pages so the math leads back to real contracts. The odds board shows current prices, AI predictions add forecast context, and news impact analysis helps explain why a price may have moved. That full workflow is stronger than any single calculator output.
Questions to answer after using the tool
After using the prediction market profit calculator, write down the market price, the implied probability, the maximum loss, the expected payout, and the evidence that would make the trade wrong. If those answers are not clear, the tool has surfaced a research gap rather than a trade. Open the market page, read the settlement rule, and compare nearby contracts before deciding whether the math still supports the idea.
This process is especially important for fast moving markets. A price that looked attractive before a headline may become unattractive after the book reprices. Re-run the calculation after major news, after a large order fills, or before increasing size. Prediction market tools are most useful when they stay connected to the live price.
