Kalshi's live forecasts show real-time probabilities on elections, economic events, weather, and more. Unlike polls or pundit predictions, these odds are backed by real money—making them some of the most accurate forecasts available.
What is a Kalshi live forecast?
Every Kalshi market displays a live price that reflects the crowd's probability estimate. If "Fed cuts rates in March" trades at $0.42, the market is saying there's a 42% chance it happens.
This price updates in real time as traders buy and sell. When news breaks, you can watch the forecast shift within seconds.
Why it matters: Prediction markets consistently outperform polls and expert forecasts. When people have money on the line, they're more careful about their predictions.
Live forecast categories
Kalshi offers live forecasts across multiple categories:
- Elections: Presidential, Senate, House races. Real-time odds updated as polls and news drop.
- Federal Reserve: Rate decisions, FOMC meeting outcomes. Markets reprice on every economic data release.
- Economics: CPI, jobs reports, GDP. Trade before the data drops, watch the resolution live.
- Weather: Temperature records, hurricane landfalls, snowfall. Markets tied to official NOAA data.
- Sports: Championships, awards. Odds shift with injuries, trades, and game results.
How to read Kalshi forecasts
The price is the probability. A few examples:
- $0.72 Yes: 72% chance the event happens
- $0.15 Yes: 15% chance—unlikely but possible
- $0.95 Yes: 95% chance—almost certain, but 5% tail risk remains
Watch for price movements. A forecast jumping from $0.40 to $0.55 in an hour means new information hit the market.
Finding edge in live forecasts
Live forecasts are useful for tracking, but the opportunity is in trading. You profit when:
- You know something the market doesn't: You read the primary source before the headline spreads.
- You model better: Your estimate is 60%, market says 45%. If you're right, that's edge.
- The market overreacts: A headline moves the price too far, and it mean-reverts.
The forecast is the starting point. Your job is to decide if it's wrong.
News drives forecast changes
The biggest forecast moves happen when news breaks:
- Economic data releases (CPI, jobs, Fed statements)
- Political developments (endorsements, debates, court rulings)
- Unexpected events (resignations, health news, geopolitical shocks)
Traders who connect news to affected markets fastest get the best prices.
Tracking forecasts with Alphascope
Alphascope helps you act on live forecasts:
- News → Breaking stories automatically linked to affected Kalshi markets. See which forecasts are about to move.
- Predictions → Browse live Kalshi forecasts alongside Polymarket. Spot divergences between platforms.
Instead of watching prices passively, you can see the catalyst and act before the crowd.
Example: Fed rate forecast
Say "Fed holds rates in January" is at $0.78. You're watching for the December jobs report.
Jobs come in hot—way above expectations. Within minutes:
- The forecast drops to $0.65 (higher rates more likely now)
- Traders who anticipated this already bought No before the data
- Traders who reacted fast bought No at $0.22 before it spiked to $0.35
The live forecast showed the market's real-time repricing. The edge went to those who moved first.
FAQ
How accurate are Kalshi forecasts?
Prediction markets are among the most accurate forecasting tools available. Studies show they outperform polls, expert panels, and models in most domains.
How often do forecasts update?
Continuously. Every trade updates the price. During high-activity periods (data releases, debates), prices can move every few seconds.
Can I see historical forecast data?
Kalshi shows price charts for each market. You can see how the forecast evolved over time and what caused major moves.
Are live forecasts the same as polls?
No. Polls ask people what they think. Prediction markets ask people to bet money on what they think. The money filter makes forecasts more accurate.
How do I trade on a forecast I disagree with?
If the forecast says 60% and you think it's 40%, buy No shares. If you're right, you profit when the market corrects or the event resolves.