Polls tell you what people say. Prediction markets tell you what people bet. Both try to forecast the future, but they work very differently. Here's how Kalshi prediction markets compare to traditional polls—and when each is more useful.
The key difference
Polls ask a sample of people how they'll vote or what they think will happen. Pollsters weight responses to match demographics and likely voter models.
Prediction markets let people bet money on outcomes. Prices reflect the aggregate view of traders, weighted by how much they're willing to stake.
The core difference: polls measure opinion; markets measure conviction.
Which is more accurate?
Research shows prediction markets often outperform polls, especially as events get closer:
- Real-time updates: Markets reprice instantly on news. Polls take days or weeks.
- Skin in the game: Bettors have incentive to be right. Poll respondents don't.
- Information aggregation: Markets combine polls, models, insider knowledge, and intuition into one price.
- No herding: Traders profit by disagreeing with the crowd when the crowd is wrong.
But polls have advantages too:
- Structured sampling (markets are whoever shows up to trade)
- Measure actual voter intent, not just prediction
- More data points (crosstabs, demographics, issue positions)
When polls and markets disagree
The interesting moments are when Kalshi prices diverge from polling averages:
Markets higher than polls suggest:
- Traders may see enthusiasm/turnout factors polls miss
- Possible information not yet reflected in public polls
- Or: markets are overreacting to recent news
Markets lower than polls suggest:
- Traders may distrust the polling methodology
- Historical polling errors in similar races
- Or: markets are slow to update
Divergences are where edges live. If you think the market is wrong, that's a trading opportunity.
How Kalshi election markets work
Kalshi offers markets on elections with clear resolution rules:
- Binary outcomes: "Candidate X wins" → Yes or No
- Price = probability: $0.60 means 60% implied chance
- Resolution source: Usually AP or official results
Example: If "Democrats win Senate" trades at $0.45 on Kalshi but polls show 50/50, the market is pricing in something polls might miss (incumbency advantage, turnout models, etc.).
How to use polls and markets together
Smart forecasters use both:
- Start with polls: Get the baseline. What do surveys say?
- Check the market: Does Kalshi agree? If not, why?
- Look for catalysts: What upcoming events could move both?
- Form your own view: Combine data into your probability estimate.
- Trade the gap: If your estimate differs from the market, that's your edge.
Trading around poll releases
Major poll releases move markets. Key polls to watch:
- NYT/Siena: High-quality, market-moving
- Fox News: Watched for Republican-leaning samples
- CNN: Watched for Democratic-leaning samples
- Marist, Quinnipiac: Respected state-level polls
- Aggregators: 538, RealClearPolitics, Silver Bulletin
Timing matters. If you expect a poll to show movement, position before it drops.
Limitations of both
Poll limitations:
- Response rates are low (hard to reach representative samples)
- Likely voter models can be wrong
- Can't capture late-breaking shifts
- Herding (pollsters copy each other)
Market limitations:
- Can be moved by whales (big traders)
- May reflect trader demographics, not voter demographics
- Thin liquidity on some races
- Susceptible to manipulation attempts
Neither is perfect. Use both as inputs.
Track polls and markets with Alphascope
Alphascope connects news (including poll releases) to prediction markets:
- News → See when major polls drop and which Kalshi markets they affect.
- Predictions → Browse Kalshi election markets. Compare to Polymarket prices.
When a new poll moves the narrative, you'll see it linked to the right markets.
FAQ
Are Kalshi markets more accurate than polls?
Often yes, especially close to the event. Markets update faster and aggregate more information sources. But polls provide structured demographic data markets can't.
Do Kalshi prices follow polls?
Partly. Major poll releases move Kalshi prices. But markets also incorporate other information (early voting, enthusiasm, historical patterns).
Why would I use Kalshi instead of just reading polls?
Kalshi gives you a single probability estimate that combines all available information. You can also profit if you think the market is wrong.
How fast do Kalshi prices update after a poll?
Minutes to hours, depending on the poll's impact. Major polls (NYT/Siena) can move prices within minutes.
Can polls be wrong but markets right?
Yes. In 2016 and 2020, prediction markets captured uncertainty that polling averages missed. Markets price in the possibility of polling error.