Polymarket and Kalshi are the two biggest prediction markets. Both let you trade on real-world events, but they're built very differently. This guide breaks down the key differences so you can pick the right platform.
TL;DR
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Regulation | Offshore (not US-regulated) | CFTC-regulated (US legal) |
| Currency | USDC (crypto) | USD |
| US access | Blocked (officially) | Legal in most states |
| Liquidity | Deeper on politics/crypto | Growing, strong on economics |
| Fees | ~0% trading fees | ~0% trading fees |
| Deposits | Crypto or card | ACH, wire, debit card |
Regulation: The biggest difference
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM). This means:
- Legal for US residents
- Customer funds are segregated
- Audited and compliant with federal rules
- Regulatory recourse if something goes wrong
Polymarket is offshore and unregulated. It settled with the CFTC in 2022 and now blocks US users. For non-US users, it operates in a legal gray area with no regulatory protections.
Bottom line: If you're in the US and want to trade legally, Kalshi is your only option.
Liquidity: Polymarket usually wins
Polymarket has deeper liquidity on most markets, especially:
- US elections (presidential, Senate, House)
- Crypto events (ETF approvals, price targets)
- High-profile political events
Kalshi is catching up but still has thinner books on many events. However, Kalshi is stronger on:
- Economic data (Fed rates, CPI, jobs)
- Weather markets
- Some niche US events
Why liquidity matters: Deep liquidity means tighter spreads and less slippage. You can enter and exit positions at fair prices.
Market coverage
Polymarket lists more markets overall. It's faster to add new events and has looser restrictions on what can be traded.
Kalshi is more conservative. Every market must pass CFTC approval, which limits what they can offer but ensures clear resolution rules.
Both cover the major categories: politics, economics, crypto, sports, and culture. But if you want obscure or edgy markets, Polymarket has more.
Fees
Both platforms currently offer near-zero trading fees:
- Polymarket: 0% on most markets (subsidized)
- Kalshi: 0% on most markets (promotional)
This could change as both platforms mature, but for now, fees are not a differentiator.
Deposits and withdrawals
Kalshi:
- ACH transfer (free, 1–3 days)
- Wire transfer (faster, may have bank fees)
- Debit card (instant, small fee)
- Withdrawals to your bank account
Polymarket:
- Crypto deposit (USDC on Polygon)
- Card deposit (converted to USDC)
- Withdrawals to crypto wallet, then exchange to USD
Kalshi is simpler if you don't want to touch crypto. Polymarket requires a few extra steps for USD conversion.
User experience
Both platforms have clean, modern interfaces. Polymarket feels more like a crypto app; Kalshi feels more like a traditional exchange.
Key UX differences:
- Polymarket: Wallet-based login, faster onboarding, no KYC for small amounts
- Kalshi: Email login, full KYC required, more traditional account structure
Which should you use?
Use Kalshi if:
- You're a US resident and want to trade legally
- You prefer USD and bank transfers
- You want regulatory protection for your funds
- You trade economic events (Fed, CPI, jobs)
Use Polymarket if:
- You're outside the US
- You want the deepest liquidity on political markets
- You're comfortable with crypto (USDC)
- You want access to more markets
Use both if:
- You're outside the US and want to compare prices
- You want to arbitrage price differences
- You trade different event types on each platform
Compare with Alphascope
Alphascope shows both platforms side-by-side:
- Predictions → See Polymarket and Kalshi prices for the same events. Spot divergences instantly.
- News → Breaking stories linked to markets on both platforms.
When prices diverge between platforms, one of them is wrong. That's your edge.
FAQ
Can I use both Polymarket and Kalshi?
If you're outside the US, yes. US residents can only use Kalshi legally.
Which has better odds?
It varies by market. Compare prices on both platforms before trading. Sometimes Polymarket is cheaper; sometimes Kalshi is.
Is Polymarket safer than Kalshi?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated with segregated funds. Polymarket has no regulatory protections. Kalshi is objectively safer.
Why does liquidity matter?
More liquidity = tighter spreads = better prices. You lose less to slippage when entering and exiting trades.
Will Polymarket ever be legal in the US?
Possibly, but not currently. Regulatory attitudes may shift, but for now, US residents should use Kalshi.