PARIS — Both the far right and far left made strong showings in the first round of France’s municipal elections on Sunday, offering some early clues about which way the political winds are blowing ahead of the all-important 2027 presidential race.
Still, it is unwise to draw sweeping conclusions from Sunday’s results because much can change in the second round. Lesser placed candidates are scrambling to form alliances that could change the outcomes dramatically in the March 22 runoff.
The National Rally scored well but didn’t deliver the landslides it craved in the south, one of its regional strongholds. In key target cities such as Marseille and Toulon, it now faces major scraps in the second round. Still, several of its candidates garnered more than 40 percent of the vote, something many centrist candidates can only dream of.
At the other end of the spectrum, the France Unbowed movement of hard-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, performed better than expected in several cities such as Lille and Roubaix in the northeast, confirming his status as a key player ahead of next year’s presidential vote. His candidates’ strong performances will be a headache for the moderate left, which is wary of an alliance with the increasingly toxic M´élenchon, but not strong enough to dismiss him entirely.
Here are POLITICO’s key takeaways on how the race is shaping up.
Strong results, but no landslide for the far right
France’s two-round electoral system has historically worked against Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, including in elections of mayors and city councils, as ad hoc alliances form before the runoff to block far-right candidates.
This time around, the party was hoping to capitalize on fighting between centrists and leftists — as well as harnessing its growing nationwide appeal — to make a breakthrough.
In that regard, the first round delivered a mixed picture for the party. Incumbent Mayor and party Vice-President Louis Aliot was reelected with an absolute majority in Perpignan in the south, the only large city governed by the party.
But the party failed to score a home run in Toulon, one of the cities it is hoping to win. Its candidate, MP Laure Lavalette, one of Le Pen’s closest lieutenants, will face an uphill battle against rivals in the second round.
Still, the far right is progressing significantly in urban centers which have long been strongholds of the center right and the center left.
The most striking example is Marseille, France’s second-largest city, where National Rally candidate Franck Allisio is neck and neck with incumbent Mayor Benoît Payan, who has the support of several moderate left parties.
“These results reveal an expectation that we know is immense,” National Rally President Jordan Bardella said minutes after polls closed. “Change won’t wait until 2027 — it starts this coming Sunday,” he added, referring to the second round.
Still, Allisio faces an uphill battle to win in the second round. The left-wing candidate in Marseille, who has also qualified for the second round, is now suggesting an alliance with Payan to keep the far-right candidate out.
Center right feels the squeeze
President Emmanuel Macron’s allies are under pressure across the country, where center-right candidates are struggling to hold or win large cities because the far right is siphoning off part of their electorate.
A case in point is Nice, where Le Pen’s ally Eric Ciotti won more than 40 percent of the vote, according to first estimates, making him the front-runner ahead of the runoff against incumbent Christian Estrosi, who is supported by centrist parties.
Ciotti was president of Les Républicains from 2022 to 2024, but was ousted by his own party in a dramatic coup after striking a deal with Le Pen’s National Rally without the approval of his own troops.
The race in Nice reflects both the struggle of traditional center-right forces to hold off the far right and a bitter personal rivalry between Ciotti and Estrosi, a former member of the conservative Les Républicains party.
Centrist champion Edouard Philippe survives to fight another day
Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe had a scare after polling placed him neck and neck with his Communist opponent, but the centrist frontrunner for the 2027 presidential election came comfortably ahead in the industrial city of Le Havre.
Philippe, who has already declared his candidacy for 2027, had said he would drop his bid if he lost the mayoral race in Normandy, putting his political future in jeopardy.
“Polls are not elections; in a democracy, it is the voters who decide,” said Philippe after the results dropped.
Hard left scores high
France Unbowed, Mélenchon’s hard-left movement, performed better than expected in key target cities, a result that will increase the moderate left’s discomfort ahead of the 2027 presidential race.
The prime example is the northern city of Lille, where the France Unbowed candidate was by one projection in a tie with the incumbent center-left mayor. France Unbowed is also on track to come in first in Roubaix, a populous, working-class city on Lille’s outskirts.
The party’s prospects in this contest were very much in question after a controversy surrounding the death of a far-right activist last month. But France Unbowed’s strategy of focusing on young voters and working-class urban populations, often of immigrant descent, is delivering despite repeated controversies, particularly accusations of antisemitism against Mélenchon.
“This election confirms that there is a strong France Unbowed constituency in big cities,” said Jean-Yves Dormagen, a political scientist and head of polling institute Cluster17.
Dormagen also highlighted the highly polarized and fragmented nature of France’s political landscape, confirmed by Sunday’s results. In many cities, up to four or five candidates qualified for the runoff, a situation that used to be an exception a few years ago.
Moderate left will have a few headaches
This fragmented political landscape is inflicting a series of splitting headaches on France’s ailing moderates, especially on the left, where infighting was already on display on election night.
The moderate left is torn over whether to make ad hoc alliances with the hard-left France Unbowed movement whose fiery leader has become highly toxic to centrist voters.
“We won’t overturn the far-right wave with Jean-Luc Mélenchon as our ball-and-chain,” social democrat figurehead Raphaël Glucksmann, who has long criticized Mélenchon’s outbursts and positioning, said Sunday.
That put him at odds with against Green leader Marine Tondelier, who opened the door to alliances with the radical left.
“I see less differences between the lefts than between the left and the right,” she said.
While the Socialist Party has turned its back on Mélenchon at a national level, electoral math may force some candidates to rethink at a local level.
In important urban centers such as Nantes, Rennes, Marseille, and even Paris, the road to victory could involve striking a deal with France Unbowed’s candidates — all of whom have made the runoff. In others like Limoges and Toulouse, the left has a chance of ousting an incumbent right-wing mayor — but France Unbowed’s candidates are ahead of the Socialists.
The Socialists can look to Paris with some dose of optimism. Their candidate Emmanuel Grégoire came first by a comfortable margin in the capital over his center-right rival Rachida Dati. But he is not guaranteed to win without the hard left’s votes in the runoff.
“Next Sunday will be a pivotal moment for Paris’ future. What’s at stake is how we live together,” Grégoire said.
Sophia Chikirou, from France Unbowed, dared him to team up, saying she was “waiting for the call.”
