The battle for control of Congress begins in earnest on Tuesday as voters in three states cast their ballots in the first primaries of the 2026 midterms.
All eyes will be on Texas, where Democrats and Republicans are both locked in tight Senate primaries. The results will determine which candidates move on to a high-stakes general election that could help decide which party controls Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency. There are other important races further down the ballot in the Lone Star State that will serve as key tests of where the bases of both parties stand with eight months to go until the midterms.
The outcome of North Carolina’s Senate primary is less uncertain, but it will still provide valuable insight into Democrats’ odds of flipping what may be the GOP’s most vulnerable seat. Arkansas is also holding primaries on Tuesday, with incumbent Republicans expected to cruise to victory.
Republicans currently have full control in Washington, D.C., but the national mood has shifted strongly against the GOP since Trump returned to the White House. In race after race across the country, Democrats have gained ground compared with their past performances. Forecasters are giving Democrats a strong chance to flip the House and at least a chance of gaining the majority in the Senate as well.
No seats will change hands on Tuesday, but the results will set up critical contests that will decide who holds power on Capitol Hill after November’s national election.
Texas
Senate: The biggest primary races on Tuesday are in the Senate race in Texas. Democrats haven’t won a state-wide election in the Lone Star State in three decades, but no one is taking Texas for granted this year. The parties are prepping for what could be a closely contested general election that may play a key role in determining control of the Senate for the last two years of Trump’s presidency.
The primaries on both sides have been incredibly tight — and, at times, deeply contentious. That’s especially true on the Republican side, where longtime Sen. John Cornyn is facing an aggressive challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Cornyn has held the seat since 2002 and has won easily each time he’s been up for reelection. But polls suggest that Paxton — a MAGA devotee who has attacked Cornyn for not being conservative enough for Trump’s GOP — has a strong chance to unseat him. Another hard-right Republican, U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, is also in the race. Though he’s a long shot to win, his presence increases the chances that Cornyn and Paxton will face off head-to-head in a runoff in May.
The Democratic primary has featured plenty of fireworks too. State lawmaker James Talarico is up against U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett for the opportunity to turn the seat blue in November. Though Talarico and Crockett are relatively similar in the policies they support, the two could not be more different in their personal approaches to appealing to voters. Talarico, a soft-spoken former public school teacher, has positioned himself as a consolidator who is seeking to bridge the partisan divide and connect with Texans from across the political spectrum. Crockett, on the other hand, has earned a reputation as one of the most unapologetically blunt Democrats in Congress during her three years in the House of Representatives.
Though Talarico and Crockett had mostly avoided directly criticizing each other during the campaign, the contest has become more adversarial in recent weeks after a series of incidents — including a disputed claim that Talarico called another high-profile Texas Democrat a “mediocre Black man” and CBS’s decision not to air an interview with Talarico on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert.
House of Representatives: Though Texas’s Senate race will get most of the attention, there are some other key primaries down ballot that are worth watching.
One involves Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales, who has faced calls from within his own party to resign amid allegations that he had an affair with a member of his congressional staff who later died by suicide. Gonzales has said the claim that he had an affair is “completely untruthful.” Despite the allegations, neither Trump nor House Speaker Mike Johnson has pulled their endorsements. If Gonzales loses the primary, that could influence his decision on whether to resign before his term ends early next year, potentially leaving the GOP with an even smaller House majority until he’s replaced.
GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw, one of the most recognizable members of Texas’s congressional delegation, also faces a real risk of losing his seat in the House amid a tough primary fight. Crenshaw, a cable news regular who has occasionally criticized some of Trump’s policies, is up against multiple staunch conservative challengers who argue he has undermined the MAGA agenda.
Democrats’ most closely contested House primary is an example of the deep generational divide that has defined the party’s internal conflict for years. Because of the new congressional map passed by state Republicans last year, two current Democratic members of the House — 79-year-old Al Green and 37-year-old Christian Menefee — are forced to compete against each other for the chance to stay in Congress. Green has been a member of the House for more than 20 years. Menefee was sworn in only last month. Age is an especially weighty issue in this particular district, which has had two House members die in office during the past two years.
North Carolina
Senate: North Carolina is widely viewed as one of the Democrats’ best opportunities to flip a Senate seat in the midterms. Unlike Texas, it’s a genuine swing state where Democrats have a strong recent history of statewide wins. Republicans don’t have the advantage of incumbency, since current Sen. Thom Tillis has opted not to run for reelection. Democrats also have a strong candidate in former Gov. Roy Cooper, who is expected to secure his party’s nomination.
Things are a bit tighter on the GOP side, but polls suggest that former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley is likely to come out on top. Though Whatley was endorsed by Trump, he has still faced criticism from prominent figures on the right that he’s “not MAGA.” There are two other prominent candidates in the GOP primary. One is Don Brown, a lawyer who has defended people charged in connection with the Jan. 6 riots. The other is Michele Morrow, a former candidate for state superintendent who has called for Democratic presidents to be executed.
Even if Whatley wins comfortably, his margin of victory and the overall turnout in the primary will be key indicators of his support within the GOP base, which he will need to outcompete Cooper in November.
House of Representatives: There are two key congressional primaries to watch in North Carolina. One is in the state’s deep-blue 4th district. Rep. Valerie Foushee, 69, is being challenged by 32-year-old progressive Nida Allam in another generational test for the Democratic Party.
The other race worth watching is on the Republican side, where five candidates are vying for the opportunity to challenge Democratic Rep. Don Davis. Davis has represented North Carolina’s first district since 2023, winning narrow victories in the past two election cycles. But Republicans in the state legislature have imposed a new district map that makes the district significantly more favorable to their party. Whoever emerges from the GOP primary will have a strong chance to flip Davis’s seat for Republicans in November.
Arkansas
The GOP’s overwhelming dominance in Arkansas means the state will likely see very little drama on Tuesday. Republican Sen. Tom Cotton is expected to easily defeat a pair of little-known primary challengers in his pursuit of a third term in the Senate. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders is running unopposed. While Democratic primaries for those seats may end up being more competitive, the winners will face long odds in the general election.
