A report says that a few users of Polymarket earned significant profits by correctly guessing the date of U.S. strikes on Iran, collectively making $1.2 million
Several users on the US-based prediction market platform Polymarket have apparently earned $1.2 million by betting on the timing of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, according to a new report.
At least five users placed the correct bets on Polymarket, a prediction platform with ties to Donald Trump Jr. that has previously been investigated by federal regulators.
According to the Guardian's Aisha Down, "At least seven different accounts on the platform Polymarket appear to have collectively made over $1.5m on bets that the U.S. would strike Iran this weekend. Five of these accounts are new accounts that have made no other bets; one more appears to have only also bet on strikes last weekend." It comes as the jobs 'too vital' for WW3 draft if conscription returns to USA have been revealed.
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She added, "One more, 'Magamyman', has previously bet mostly on U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran over the past year." All of these accounts are anonymous. A crypto analytics platform on X, Bubblemaps, called six of them “suspected insiders," noting that their bets were funded in the past few days and timed specifically for this weekend, collectively making roughly $1.2m.
Polymarket is the leading decentralized prediction platform globally, established in 2020 and operating on the Polygon blockchain. Participants use USDC cryptocurrency to buy and sell shares based on their predictions about real-world events.
It also serves as a forecasting mechanism, with market prices representing the collective belief about the likelihood of upcoming events.
Last summer, Polymarket received funding from 1789 Capital, a venture capital firm where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner. Donald Trump Jr. also serves as an advisor to Polymarket.
Several months after this investment, an investigation by U.S. regulators concluded Polymarket operated as "an unregistered derivatives trading platform and [had] possible violations of money laundering laws."
Earlier this year, another newly created account on Polymarket reportedly earned close to $500,000 by wagering on Maduro's capture.
Polymarket posted a statement in response saying, “Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society."
"That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not," concluded the statement.
