France’s municipal elections, which began last week and end on Sunday, are being scrutinized for what they may presage for the country’s presidential elections next year. Among the big questions is whether France is on the cusp of a populist, far-right wave like those that swept Argentina, Italy and the United States in recent years. The answer, pending a second round of votes, is a definite maybe.
Far-right candidates performed strongly in the first round of voting a week ago in several major cities, including Marseille, Nice and Toulon. That shows the durable appeal of the National Rally party, which comfortably leads presidential polls. But the party did less well outside its strongholds in France’s south, and tactical voting in the second round could limit its gains even there.
France’s centrist parties, including that of President Emmanuel Macron, continue to languish, reflecting deep-seated disenchantment with mainstream politics. Turnout in the first round was the lowest since at least the 1950s, except for the 2020 election, when the pandemic kept voters away.
“French people are not uninterested in politics,” said Philippe Marlière, a professor of French and European politics at University College London. “They just don’t like the old ways of doing politics.”
How does the election work?
To elect its more than 34,000 mayors, France uses a two-round system: If no one wins an absolute majority in the first round, the strongest performers proceed to a runoff a week later. Most small-town elections were won outright last week, but the races in many major cities require another vote on Sunday.
Like all local elections, the races are driven primarily by parochial issues. But France’s mayors help elect the Senate, so the results have national implications.
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