A few months ago, the prevailing thinking in Washington was that while Republicans could lose the House in the 2026 midterm elections, their Senate majority was secure.
To win control of the Senate, Democrats would need to upset four GOP incumbents, including in some states where President Donald Trump sailed to victory in 2024 by double digit margins.
But a strong candidate recruitment effort, coupled with significant fundraising and Trump's declining popularity and his base's infighting, have given them a credible chance of pulling it off.
Democratic Senate contenders are leading or statistically tied, according to recent polls, for seats held by Republicans in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio.
The increasingly sour national environment for Republicans and rising optimism for Democrats, experts say, comes down to one thing: Trump's tanking poll numbers.
"Donald Trump is a millstone around the neck of Republican U.S. Senate candidate from Maine to Texas," Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said in an interview.
Prediction market companies, such as Kalshi, show Senate control as a toss-up. At the start of the year, Kalshi gave Republicans a 67% chance at keeping the majority, but that has dwindled to 51% as of April 29.
But other political observers note that Republicans will be narrow favorites to retain the upper chamber given the near perfect election season Democrats must have.
Part of Democrats' challenge is they must also hold seats of their own in the presidential toss-up states of Georgia and Michigan, plus a potential competitive race in New Hampshire where a popular incumbent retired.
"Democrats have to pitch a perfect game," Jessica Taylor, an analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told USA TODAY.
"It's not unheard of and the environment is certainly working in their favor, but at this point, they are still slight underdogs to capture the Senate," she added. "But this time a year ago, they weren't even really in the game."
Democrats punching hard with polling, fundraising edges
For much of the past year, Democrats have been overperforming – even in losses – at the ballot box, signaling a potential “blue wave” that could hand them Congress.
In each of the four GOP-held seats needed to win back the majority, a Democratic contender had raised more than the Republican, according to Federal Election Commission records from the first quarter of 2026.
One of the biggest fundraising gaps is in the closely watch race in North Carolina, where former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper vacuumed up $13.8 million versus former RNC Chairman Mike Whatley’s $5 million haul in the first three months of the year.
An April 29 survey by Opinion Diagnostics shows Cooper with a 9-point lead over Whatley.
But the road to the majority stretches beyond swing states such as North Carolina, where Trump won by about three percentage points in 2024.
In Alaska, which Trump won by 13%, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola pulled in roughly $8.7 million, which is four times as much as Republican incumbent Jack Sullivan’s $1.7 million. She led by about five percentage points in a March survey that had a 3.5% margin of error.
Ohio has been trending Republican for more than a decade, yet Sen. Jon Husted holds just a 3-point advantage over former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Bowling Green State University poll showed. That is considered a tie given the poll's margin of error.
Brown drew a $12.5 million fundraising haul through his campaign and affiliated groups, which dwarfed the $3.7 million Husted gobbled up across the same grouping, FEC records show.
Taylor said the midterm remains fluid for Senate Democrats, who built a strong recruiting class this year that has created a significant general election infrastructure. She said other races that Cook Political Report rates are awaiting primary outcomes, such as in Iowa, where Republican incumbent Joni Ernst decided against seeking reelection
GOP holds out hope with Trump looming in the background
None of this guarantees a Democratic-led Senate in 2027, as winning seven out of seven races remains a high bar.
Even with individual Democratic candidates besting their GOP foes in fundraising, Trump-aligned groups such as Make America Great Again, Inc. held a gigantic combined $600 million lead over Democratic super PACs like Future Forward.
That money will help Republicans put Democrats on defense in states like New Hampshire, where Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a popular incumbent, opted out of seeking reelection opening up a competitive race that is rated as "leaning" rather than "safe" for Democrats.
Republicans only need to keep a 50-seat caucus, with Vice President JD Vance acting as the tie-breaking vote, to retain control of the Senate.
They are emphasizing their legislative wins, such as the tax cuts within last year's "One Big Beautiful Bill."
"Every single Democrat supported raising your taxes," Sen. Tim Scott, R-South Carolina, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in an April 14 post on X.
"Meanwhile, President Trump and Republicans cut your taxes. We won. The American people won. Democrats lost."
The GOP is also grasping at any Democratic missteps or controversies, such as spotlighting how members of Texas Senate candidate James Talarico's church appeared to chuckle during an April 27 service when his pastor mentioned "mixed feelings" about the third attempt on Trump's life this month.
A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows the 36-year-old state legislator leading both of his potential GOP opponents – incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton – who've been jousting in a bitter ongoing primary.
Experts remains skeptical Talarico can pull off an upset win in Texas, which went to Trump by 14 percentage points in 2024. But his rising popularity and massive $27 million fundraising in the first three months of the year will force Republicans to play defense.
How well that election defense is going largely falls on the shoulders of voters in competitive states, such as Maine, where incumbent Sen. Susan Collins is the lone GOP member facing reelection in a state former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024.
The Senate must remain a "firewall for America," Scott said when speaking to Maine Republicans during their April 24 convention. "I say this everywhere I go around the country; every donor I call; every state I visit I tell them the same story," he said. "It all starts with Susan Collins."
Democrats had been engaged in a messy primary in Maine between Gov. Janet Mills and political newcomer Graham Platner, an oyster farmer gaining traction among progressive groups who outpaced his Schumer-endorsed rival's fundraising in the first quarter. Mills raked in about $2.7 million whereas Platner pulled about $4.1 million, according to the FEC.
Mills stunned political observers April 30 when she dropped out of the race, citing the money gap.
But other competitive Democratic primaries could also give Republicans an opening in the presidential swing state of Michigan, which Trump won by less than two percentage points. There's three-way race between Rep. Haley Stevens, former Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow that has been marked by differences over Israel and the Democratic Party establishment.
Democrats are largely betting on Trump's unpopularity weighing down GOP contenders in those contest. They have already begun to hang their 2026 pitch on the administration's war with Iran leading to rising gas prices, which climbed to a 4-year high of $4.18 a gallon this week, according to AAA data.
An Associated Press-NORC Research Center survey released April 29 showed just 30% hold an approval of how Trump is handling the economy. That is an 8-point decrease compared to March in the same poll.
As much as Trump's disapproval numbers are weighing down GOP contenders, some observers point out that he remains an energizing force who won't easily be left on the sidelines.
If Republicans are suffering from a lack of enthusiasm, as other contests this year have shown, Senate candidates may no choice but to embrace the president. That's because it will be impossible to hold states he won by double-digits without his support, experts say.
"They're damned if they do and they're damned if they don't. If they distance themselves from Trump, then that will adversely affect them in terms of turnout by the Republican base," Jones, the Rice University professor, said.
"But the more they're seen as aligned with Trump, the more that alienates moderate Republicans and independents, who are then more likely to vote for their Democratic rival."
