After more than four years on the Ukrainian front lines, officer Kyrylo Bondarenko is finally sensing a shift. “We can see and feel how the mood among the Russian troops on the front line is changing. They are exhausted,” Bondarenko told CNN.
“We have managed to turn the tide,” Bondarenko, who serves in the Ukrainian unmanned aerial systems unit Lazar’s Group and is currently fighting near Zaporizhzhia, told CNN.
He’s not alone in feeling this.
Last month, Ukraine managed to liberate more land than Russia seized – the first time Moscow suffered a net loss of territory since Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion into the southern Russian Kursk region, according to analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based conflict monitor.
While the amount of territory liberated by Ukraine remains very small – Russia still controls almost 20% of Ukraine’s land – Kyiv appears to have the upper hand, for now.
That is a problem for Moscow and its President Vladimir Putin, who has always insisted that Russia’s victory in the war is inevitable because Russian troops keep seizing more of Ukraine’s territory and, sooner or later, will take over the whole of its eastern Donbas region.
That narrative has always been flawed, given how slow and incredibly costly the Russian advances have been since the initial full-scale invasion of 2022, but it has caused some damage to Ukraine’s cause. At times, even US President Donald Trump has appeared to buy into it, declaring Russia to be winning the war and famously telling Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky last year that he did not “have the cards.”
“The entire premise of Putin’s negotiating tactic is using this cognitive warfare to convince the West that there’s no point in supporting Ukraine and that they should just push Ukraine to cede now to all of Russia’s demands,” Christina Harward, the Russia deputy team lead at ISW, told CNN.
“This is really poking holes in that entire narrative,” she added.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said Tuesday that the past few months were “record-breaking” in terms of Kyiv’s successes along the front line.
“We have eliminated 35,000 Russians in both April and March… Russia lacks the forces to continue offensive operations. The Ukrainian army is exhausting the Russians,” he said.
Western officials have said, citing intelligence data, that Russian casualty rates stand at around 30,000 to 35,000 a month.
Mid-range drone strikes
Ukraine’s recent successes can largely be attributed to its current drone superiority. After focusing much of its efforts on short-range attacks on Russian positions along the front line, and long-range strikes reaching far into Russia’s territory, Ukraine has recently stepped up its mid-range strikes, targeting Russia’s logistics.
“We’ve seen a really dramatic uptick in the number of these strikes that Ukrainians have been conducting,” Haward said. “It’s affecting Russian logistics. If they’re constantly now under threat of Ukrainian drone strikes, that’s going to significantly threaten, slow and hamper their logistics.”
Zelensky said in one of his nightly addresses last week that conducting mid-range strikes against Russian military logistics, from depots and command posts to air defense systems, is the country’s top priority and that Ukraine is ramping up contracts and production to sustain that effort.
Soldiers fighting on the front lines have confirmed the mid-range strikes are making a difference.
A senior officer in Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), who goes by the call sign Bankir, told CNN that despite “continuous” assaults by Russia in the Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukraine had managed to regain partial control over areas that Russia captured several months ago.
“There are many different units deployed in our sector. This part of the front is being held thanks to the coordinated efforts of all defense forces – from the infantry holding the positions to the drones that are constantly operating and striking the enemy,” he told CNN.
The front line is now so saturated with drones that it is almost impossible for either side to make a move. While the Ukrainians are struggling to liberate as much land as they would like, the inability to move is more damaging for the Russian troops who can no longer grind forward slowly, as they have in the past.
Instead, they are now attempting to infiltrate areas under Ukrainian control and create an illusion of constant advances, analysts say. They may be able to raise the Russian flag inside the no-man’s land that is the current front line, but they cannot hold the position for long.
“The Russians constantly report to their commanders that they have captured various villages, but in reality, they are not there. We are constantly pushing them out of there. Our mid-range strikes, which we carry out continuously, are a great help in this regard,” Bondarenko said.
This strategy is most visible along some of the most heavily contested areas of the front line – including the once strategically important Ukrainian transport hub of Pokrovsk. When Russia finally managed to take over the city in December, almost two years after its first attempt, the fear in Kyiv was that this could lead to further advances. But Russian troops have been stuck, unable to push ahead.
‘Endless war mess’
Ukraine’s recent successes are not limited to the front lines.
Kyiv has sought to limit how much Russia can benefit from the rise in oil prices caused by the conflict in Iran, carrying out strikes deeper inside Russian territory and targeting oil and gas infrastructure and other key assets.
This has helped to limit Moscow’s windfall from the higher oil prices, but it has also brought the war much closer to home for its citizens.
Dmitro, who serves as a drone operator in Ukraine’s 79th brigade and asked to be identified by his first name only, told CNN the day-to-day reality on the front line was “an emotional rollercoaster. While morale lifts whenever Kyiv manages a tactical win, he said, those fighting on the front lines are constantly worried about their loved ones back home.
Russia massively increased its missile and drone attacks against cities across Ukraine last year, targeting energy facilities and other civilian sites. Last year was the deadliest for Ukrainian civilians since 2022, with more than 2,500 killed in 2025, according to the United Nations. The first four months of this year have been even deadlier – with more civilians killed each month than in the same month last year, according to UN data.
These attacks are showing no sign of easing. Moscow launched more than 1,400 drones and 56 missiles in the 24 hours to Thursday morning. In Kyiv alone, the air raid alarm was in place for some 11 hours.
Dmitro said that many Ukrainian people feel a sense of justice when strikes deep inside Russia bring the reality of the war closer to home for Russian people.
“When we hit Russian cities with their buildings and plants … Russian people acknowledge there is war,” he said. “And later that day we get hit terribly in multiple places, with many casualties. … it’s just an endless war mess.”
While Ukraine has scored some tactical victories in recent months, Russia has also taken steps that seemingly hinder its own efforts, such as disabling Telegram, the encrypted messenger app widely used by soldiers on the front lines for military communications.
This happened shortly after Ukraine managed to persuade Elon Musk’s SpaceX company to deny Russia access to its Starlink satellite-based internet service. Even the most pro-war Russian military bloggers were critical of the Telegram decision.
At the same time, Russia-watchers say the war is becoming increasingly unpopular among Russians. The economy is struggling, people are frustrated about internet disruptions and frequent Ukrainian attacks against targets deep inside the country are worrying some people.
The human toll is increasing daily. Last week, opposition Russian outlets Mediazona and Meduza published a new estimate of Russian losses in Ukraine, saying as many as 352,000 Russians have been killed in the four years since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion. The Kremlin has not commented on the figure.
Ukraine is estimated to have suffered between 100,000 and 150,000 fatalities since the start of the war. Neither side releases official casualty numbers and CNN cannot independently verify the death toll, but most international experts have been in broad agreement over the estimates.
The signs appear to be good for Ukraine and morale there is certainly higher than just a few months ago – but many remain cautious. Spring is now in full bloom, and there is concern that the new foliage could reduce visibility for Ukraine’s drone operators and provide more cover for Russian infiltrators.
There have been successes for Kyiv before – such as its big counteroffensive in the summer and fall of 2022, or the incursion into Russia’s Kursk region – but they have not won Ukraine the war.
For now, Ukraine may not be winning – but it is losing a lot less than Russia.
