Kalshi isn't technically "betting" — it's event contract trading regulated by the CFTC. However, the mechanics are similar: you speculate on outcomes like elections, economic data, and weather by buying Yes or No contracts that pay $1 if correct.
What You Can Trade on Kalshi
Political Events
- Presidential and congressional elections
- State and local races
- Policy outcomes and executive actions
- Primary results and nominations
Economic Indicators
- Federal Reserve rate decisions
- Monthly jobs reports and unemployment
- GDP growth and inflation (CPI)
- Housing data and consumer sentiment
Weather and Climate
- Temperature ranges for major cities
- Hurricane and storm activity
- Seasonal snowfall totals
Other Markets
- Awards shows (Oscars, Grammys)
- Select sports props and outcomes
- Technology and business events
How Kalshi Betting Works
- Choose a market: Browse available event contracts
- Decide Yes or No: Buy Yes if you think it'll happen, No if you don't
- Pay the price: Contracts trade between $0.01-$1.00 based on implied probability
- Wait for resolution: The event either happens or doesn't
- Collect winnings: Winning contracts pay $1.00, losers pay $0
Example: "Will Democrats win Pennsylvania?" trades at $0.58. You buy Yes for $0.58. If Democrats win, you make $0.42 profit ($1.00 - $0.58). If not, you lose your $0.58.
Kalshi vs Traditional Sports Betting
| Feature | Kalshi | Sports Betting Apps |
|---|---|---|
| Legal classification | Commodity trading (CFTC) | Gambling (state gaming) |
| Market types | Politics, economics, weather, some sports | Primarily sports |
| Pricing | Probability-based ($0.01-$1.00) | Odds-based (+150, -200, etc.) |
| House edge | No house (peer-to-peer market) | Vig/juice built into odds |
Effective Betting Strategies
Research-Based Trading
Focus on markets where you have knowledge edge:
- Follow Fed policy → trade interest rate markets
- Understand state politics → trade state election markets
- Track economic data → trade jobs and GDP markets
Contrarian Betting
Fade overreactions to news:
- If a candidate's odds crash on minor news, consider buying
- When markets panic-sell, look for value
Risk Management
- Never bet more than 1-5% of your bankroll on one market
- Diversify across uncorrelated events
- Set stop-losses or exit rules
Understanding Kalshi Odds
Kalshi uses decimal pricing instead of traditional betting odds:
| Kalshi Price | Implied Probability | Traditional Odds Equivalent |
|---|---|---|
| $0.25 | 25% | +300 (3/1) |
| $0.50 | 50% | +100 (even money) |
| $0.67 | 67% | -200 (1/2) |
| $0.80 | 80% | -400 (1/4) |
Bottom Line
Kalshi "betting" is really event contract trading — legally distinct from gambling but functionally similar. You speculate on real-world outcomes with transparent, probability-based pricing.
It's ideal if you want to bet on politics or economics, prefer transparent pricing over sportsbook odds, or want CFTC regulation instead of offshore platforms.