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Kalshi does not provide guaranteed easy money. A winning contract can pay more than it costs, but that payout is different from a repeatable trading advantage. Start with the executable price, your independently estimated probability, and the costs of entering and exiting.
What a 60-cent contract actually costs
Consider a hypothetical Yes contract paying $1 if it wins and $0 otherwise. Buy 100 at 60¢ and estimate another $2 of total costs. You spend $62. Winning returns $100, for a $38 net gain; losing costs the entire $62. A forecast of 60% does not make this a positive-EV purchase: expected payout is $60, below the $62 spent.
| Your probability | Expected payout | Expected profit on $62 cost |
|---|---|---|
| 55% | $55 | −$7 |
| 62% | $62 | $0 |
| 70% | $70 | $8 |
These are illustrative assumptions, not observed returns. A positive average can still lose on any individual trade. Try different probabilities in the expected value calculator.
Three approaches worth investigating
- Research a specific event: record the evidence that makes your estimate differ from the market. If you cannot explain the difference, the trade is a guess.
- Provide liquidity: passive orders may earn a spread, but fills can leave you holding inventory just before unfavorable news.
- Compare venues: first confirm the contracts have equivalent resolution conditions. A cheaper contract with different wording is not an arbitrage.
Why an apparent arbitrage can fail
Buying Yes for 56¢ on one venue and No for 40¢ on another costs 96¢ before costs. The maximum combined payout is $1 only if the outcomes truly complement each other. A 4¢ headline gap disappears with 5¢ of combined costs. One leg might also fill before the other price changes. Record the resolution source, deadline, void treatment, executable size and available funds on both venues before calling anything locked in.
A checklist before spending money
- Read the contract rules and resolution source.
- Use the ask price and depth for your actual size.
- Check the venue's current fee estimate.
- Stress-test a lower probability than your central forecast.
- Write down the maximum loss and decide whether it is affordable.
- Track forecast quality and net results separately.
Kalshi explains that fees depend on trade details; use the official fee guidance rather than assuming a flat charge. Alphascope is research support, not a promise of profitable execution.