Kalshi election markets let you trade on presidential, congressional, and state races using real money. Contracts are priced based on implied probability and settle when official results are certified.
Available Election Markets
Presidential Elections
- National winner: Which party/candidate wins the presidency
- State-by-state: Individual state outcomes (all 50 states available)
- Electoral college: Total electoral vote ranges
- Popular vote: National popular vote winner and margins
Congressional Races
- Senate control: Which party controls the Senate
- House control: Which party controls the House
- Seat counts: Total seats won by each party
- Individual races: Competitive Senate and House districts
Primary Elections
- Nominee markets: Who wins each party's nomination
- State primaries: Winners of individual primary states
- Delegate counts: Delegate thresholds and totals
How to Trade Election Markets
- Research the race: Review polls, fundamentals, and news
- Check Kalshi odds: See what the market implies
- Find mispricing: If you disagree with market probability, there's opportunity
- Place your trade: Buy Yes (if you think it happens) or No (if you don't)
- Monitor position: Odds update as news breaks and polls shift
- Hold or trade out: Wait for resolution or sell early if odds move your way
Election Trading Strategies
Polling Analysis
Trade based on high-quality polls:
- When a strong poll contradicts market odds, there may be edge
- Weight polls by quality and recency
- Watch for polling trends, not single polls
Fundamentals-Based
Look at structural factors:
- Economic conditions (incumbent performance)
- Historical patterns and demographics
- Candidate quality and campaign fundamentals
Event-Driven Trading
React to breaking news:
- Debate performances can shift odds
- Major scandals or policy announcements
- VP picks and endorsements
Arbitrage
Exploit pricing inefficiencies:
- If state markets don't match national odds, there's potential edge
- Compare Kalshi to Polymarket for price differences
- Look for correlated state mispricing
Understanding Election Odds
Kalshi prices reflect implied probability:
| Price | Meaning | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| $0.60 | 60% chance | Favored, not certain |
| $0.50 | 50% chance | Toss-up |
| $0.30 | 30% chance | Underdog |
Your profit is the difference between purchase price and $1.00 payout. Lower prices offer higher returns but lower win probability.
Key Swing State Markets
Focus on states that decide elections:
- Pennsylvania: Often the tipping point state, highest liquidity
- Michigan & Wisconsin: Blue wall states, correlated outcomes
- Arizona & Nevada: Sun Belt swing states
- Georgia: Newly competitive, high impact
- North Carolina: Perennial battleground
When Election Markets Settle
Kalshi markets resolve based on official results:
- Certification required: Markets settle when results are officially certified by states
- Timing: Typically days to weeks after election day
- Recounts: If close or contested, settlement may be delayed
- Official source: Kalshi uses government certification as the final authority
Common Mistakes in Election Trading
- Overreacting to single polls: Look at polling averages and trends
- Ignoring fundamentals: Polls can be wrong; fundamentals matter
- Emotional trading: Don't let political bias cloud judgment
- Overleveraging one outcome: Diversify to manage risk
- Chasing late movements: By the time news is public, it may be priced in
Bottom Line
Kalshi election markets offer the most liquid and regulated way for US users to trade on political outcomes. Combine polling analysis, fundamentals, and real-time news to find edges and profit from political predictions.
Focus on swing states, use limit orders to control entry, and always manage risk by diversifying positions.