Kalshi's election map shows real-time prediction market odds for every state. Instead of static polling averages, you get live prices that update as news breaks. Here's how to use it.
What is the Kalshi election map?
The Kalshi map is an interactive visualization showing:
- State-by-state odds: Which party is favored in each state
- Implied probabilities: The market's confidence level (e.g., 72% Republican)
- Live updates: Prices change in real-time as traders buy and sell
- Electoral vote totals: Projected EV count based on current prices
It's like an interactive electoral map, but powered by real money instead of pundit predictions.
How to read the map
Each state shows the leading party and the implied probability:
- Deep red/blue: High confidence (80%+). Market thinks it's locked up.
- Light red/blue: Leaning (60–80%). Favored but competitive.
- Toss-up (purple/gray): Close to 50/50. True swing states.
Click any state to see:
- Current Yes/No prices
- Order book depth
- Recent price history
- Trading volume
Key swing states to watch
Elections are won in swing states. These typically have the most liquidity and price movement:
- Pennsylvania: Often the tipping point state
- Michigan: Blue wall state, closely watched
- Wisconsin: Completes the Midwest trio
- Arizona: Sun Belt battleground
- Georgia: Flipped in 2020, still competitive
- Nevada: Small but pivotal
- North Carolina: Perennial swing state
Focus your attention (and capital) on states where odds are close and liquidity is deep.
Finding edges on the map
The map helps you spot opportunities:
1. State vs national divergence: If national odds move but a key state doesn't adjust, there may be an edge.
2. Correlated states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania often move together. If one reprices and others don't, check why.
3. Poll-market gaps: If a new state poll shows movement but the market price is stale, you can trade before others react.
4. Cross-platform comparison: Compare Kalshi state odds to Polymarket. Divergences are arbitrage opportunities.
Trading state markets
State-level markets work like any Kalshi contract:
- Buy Yes: If you think Democrats win the state
- Buy No: If you think Republicans win the state
- Price = probability: $0.55 Yes means 55% implied Democratic win
Tips:
- Check liquidity before trading. Some states have thin books.
- Use limit orders to avoid slippage.
- Watch for correlated moves—if you're long PA and MI, you have concentrated risk.
What moves state odds?
State markets reprice on:
- State-specific polls: NYT/Siena state polls are market-moving
- Early voting data: Turnout numbers by party
- Candidate visits: Where campaigns spend time signals internal polling
- Local news: Endorsements, scandals, economic news
- National events: Debates, major news affects all states
Electoral vote math
The map shows projected electoral votes based on current prices. But be careful:
- Probability ≠ certainty. A 60% favorite still loses 40% of the time.
- States are correlated. If one swing state flips, others often follow.
- The "expected EV" isn't a prediction—it's a weighted average.
Don't confuse the map's EV projection with a forecast. It's just math on current prices.
Track state markets with Alphascope
Alphascope helps you catch news that moves state markets:
- News → State-specific news linked to affected markets. See poll releases, campaign events, and local stories.
- Predictions → Browse all Kalshi election markets. Compare to Polymarket prices.
When a state poll drops, you'll see it connected to the right market instantly.
FAQ
Where do I find the Kalshi election map?
On Kalshi's website, look for the Elections section. The map is prominently featured during election season.
Are state-by-state odds accurate?
Historically, prediction markets do well on state-level forecasts. But close races (48-52%) are genuinely uncertain—don't treat odds as certainty.
Which states have the most trading volume?
Swing states (PA, MI, WI, AZ, GA, NV, NC) have the deepest liquidity. Safe states have thinner markets.
Can I build my own electoral map from Kalshi data?
Yes. Use the Kalshi API to pull state-level odds and build custom visualizations or models.
How often do state odds change?
Constantly. During active news cycles, swing state prices can move multiple times per hour.