Kalshi uses decimal pricing where contracts trade between $0.01 and $1.00, directly representing implied probability. A $0.65 price means the market estimates a 65% chance the event will happen.
How Kalshi Odds Work
Unlike traditional sportsbook odds (+150, -200), Kalshi uses simple decimal pricing:
- Price = Probability: $0.50 = 50%, $0.75 = 75%, etc.
- Payout: Winning contracts always pay $1.00
- Profit: $1.00 payout minus purchase price
- Loss: Your entire purchase price if wrong
Example
Market: "Will Democrats win Pennsylvania?"
Current price: $0.58 (58% implied probability)
- If you buy Yes at $0.58:
- Democrats win → You get $1.00 payout = $0.42 profit (72% return)
- Democrats lose → You get $0 = $0.58 loss (100% loss)
- If you buy No at $0.42:
- Democrats lose → You get $1.00 = $0.58 profit (138% return)
- Democrats win → You get $0 = $0.42 loss (100% loss)
How to Read Kalshi Odds
| Kalshi Price | Implied Probability | Interpretation | Potential Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.05 | 5% | Very unlikely | $0.95 (1900% return) |
| $0.25 | 25% | Unlikely | $0.75 (300% return) |
| $0.50 | 50% | Toss-up | $0.50 (100% return) |
| $0.75 | 75% | Likely | $0.25 (33% return) |
| $0.95 | 95% | Very likely | $0.05 (5% return) |
Yes vs No Pricing
For any market, Yes and No prices always sum to approximately $1.00 (accounting for the spread):
- Yes at $0.60 → No at $0.40
- Yes at $0.80 → No at $0.20
- Yes at $0.35 → No at $0.65
This means you can bet either direction on any outcome — you don't need to find a "No" market separately.
Understanding Bid-Ask Spreads
Kalshi displays two prices for each contract:
- Bid: Highest price buyers are willing to pay (what you receive if selling)
- Ask: Lowest price sellers will accept (what you pay if buying)
- Spread: Difference between bid and ask (Kalshi's effective fee)
Example Order Book
Bid: $0.57 (you can sell here) Ask: $0.59 (you can buy here) Spread: $0.02 Mid-price: $0.58 (true market price)
Tighter spreads (1-2¢) indicate liquid markets. Wide spreads (5-10¢) mean low liquidity.
Converting Kalshi Odds to Traditional Betting Odds
If you're used to sportsbook odds:
| Kalshi Price | American Odds | Fractional Odds | Decimal Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.10 | +900 | 9/1 | 10.0 |
| $0.25 | +300 | 3/1 | 4.0 |
| $0.50 | +100 (even) | 1/1 | 2.0 |
| $0.67 | -200 | 1/2 | 1.5 |
| $0.80 | -400 | 1/4 | 1.25 |
How to Find Value in Kalshi Odds
1. Compare to Your Own Probability
If Kalshi shows 60% but you believe it's 70%, there's value:
- Your estimate: 70% chance of winning
- Kalshi price: $0.60 (60% implied probability)
- Expected value: (0.70 × $1.00) - $0.60 = +$0.10 per contract
- This is a +EV (positive expected value) bet
2. Compare to Polls or Data
- If polls show a candidate at 55% but Kalshi is at 45%, investigate why
- Market may be slow to incorporate new information
- Or polls may be wrong and the market knows something
3. Cross-Platform Arbitrage
- If Kalshi shows 58% and Polymarket shows 52%, there's an edge
- Buy on the cheaper platform, sell on the expensive one
- Profit from the price difference (minus fees/spreads)
What Causes Odds to Move?
Kalshi odds change in real-time based on:
- News and events: Breaking news instantly shifts probabilities
- Polls: New polling data moves election markets
- Trading volume: Large orders can move prices in thin markets
- Time decay: As events approach, odds converge to 0 or 100%
Example: Election Debate
Before debate: Candidate A at 55%
During debate: Candidate A gaffes, odds drop to 48%
Post-debate polls: Polls confirm weakness, odds drop to 42%
How to Read Kalshi Price Charts
Kalshi provides historical price charts showing:
- Price over time: Track how odds have changed (hours, days, weeks)
- Volume: See how much money is being traded
- Support/resistance: Price levels where odds tend to bounce or stall
Use charts to identify:
- Trends: Sustained movement in one direction
- Overreactions: Sharp moves that quickly reverse (mean reversion opportunities)
- Breakouts: When odds break through key levels with conviction
Common Mistakes Reading Kalshi Odds
1. Confusing Price with Certainty
80% odds ≠ guaranteed win. It still loses 1 in 5 times.
2. Ignoring the Spread
Buying at ask ($0.59) and immediately selling at bid ($0.57) loses 2¢. Always factor in spread costs.
3. Chasing Odds Movements
Just because odds moved doesn't mean you should trade. Understand *why* they moved first.
4. Misreading Yes vs No
Make sure you're buying the right side. Buying "No" at 40¢ is the same as buying "Yes" on the opposite outcome at 60¢.
Bottom Line
Kalshi odds are straightforward: price = probability, and winning contracts pay $1.00. Learn to read bid-ask spreads, compare market odds to your own estimates, and find value when the market underprices or overprices outcomes.
Focus on liquid markets where spreads are tight, and always understand what event you're betting on and how it resolves before placing trades.