Kalshi's weather markets let you trade on temperature records, hurricane landfalls, precipitation levels, and other climate events. They're some of the most unique markets on the platform—and among the least competitive for traders who understand meteorology. Here's how they work.
Available weather markets
Kalshi offers several types of weather contracts:
- Daily temperature: "Will the high temperature in NYC exceed 95°F tomorrow?" Binary contracts on specific city temperatures.
- Monthly records: "Will this be the hottest July on record?" Based on official NOAA data.
- Hurricane markets: "Will a Category 4+ hurricane make US landfall this season?" Tracks NHC classifications.
- Snowfall: "Will NYC get 12+ inches of snow this winter?" Based on official weather station measurements.
- Climate milestones: "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record globally?" Based on NASA/NOAA annual data.
How weather markets resolve
Resolution is based on official data sources—no subjectivity:
- Temperature: National Weather Service (NWS) official station readings
- Hurricanes: National Hurricane Center (NHC) classifications
- Records: NOAA or NASA official climate data releases
- Snowfall: Official NWS snowfall measurements
This is a major advantage of weather markets: resolution is objective and transparent. No disputes about what "happened."
Why trade weather markets?
- Low correlation: Weather events have minimal correlation with stock markets, providing genuine diversification.
- Information edge: If you understand weather forecasting better than the average trader, you have a persistent edge.
- Thin competition: Weather markets attract fewer traders than political or financial markets. Less competition means more mispricing.
- Frequent resolution: Daily temperature markets resolve quickly, letting you compound returns.
- Hedging use: Businesses exposed to weather risk (agriculture, energy, events) can hedge directly.
Trading strategies
1. Forecast comparison: Compare Kalshi prices to weather model outputs (GFS, ECMWF, NAM). If models show 90% chance of 95°F but Kalshi prices it at 70¢, there's an edge.
2. Model ensemble: Don't rely on a single forecast model. Ensemble approaches (averaging multiple models) are more reliable and give you a better probability estimate.
3. Seasonal patterns: Historical weather data reveals patterns. If NYC has exceeded 95°F in July in 8 of the last 10 years, but the market prices it at 60%, there may be an opportunity.
4. Event catalysts: Hurricane markets move with tropical storm formation. Track NHC advisories and model runs (especially the GFS and Euro models) for early signals.
5. Climate trends: Global warming makes "hottest year" and "record temperature" markets increasingly likely over time. Long-term trends favor Yes on record-breaking markets.
Key data sources for weather trading
- NWS forecasts: Official government forecasts, free and reliable
- Weather models: GFS (US model), ECMWF (European model) available through weather sites
- Tropical Tidbits: Excellent free resource for hurricane model data
- Climate reanalyzer: Historical temperature data and anomaly maps
- NOAA Climate.gov: Official climate data and trends
Track weather markets with Alphascope
Alphascope helps you find opportunities in weather and other prediction markets:
- Predictions → Browse all Kalshi weather markets with current prices.
- News → Climate news and weather events that affect market prices.
- Arbitrage → Compare weather market prices across platforms.
FAQ
Are Kalshi weather markets popular?
Weather markets are a niche but growing category. They attract fewer casual traders than elections, which means less competition and potentially more mispricing for informed traders.
What data do I need to trade weather markets?
Free NWS forecasts and weather model data are sufficient. Professional weather traders may use paid services like commercial model subscriptions, but public data provides a solid foundation.
Can businesses hedge weather risk on Kalshi?
Yes. Agriculture, energy, tourism, and outdoor event businesses can buy weather contracts to offset losses from adverse weather conditions.