The 2024 U.S. presidential election was Polymarket's biggest event ever. Here's how the prediction markets performed.
2024 Election Results
Polymarket's final odds closely matched the actual outcome:
- Markets correctly identified the winner
- Swing state predictions were accurate
- Trump was favored for months before the election
Record Trading Volume
The 2024 election set records:
- Billions of dollars in total volume
- Highest single-market volume in prediction market history
- Millions of unique traders
Polymarket vs Polls
Prediction markets outperformed most polling averages:
- Markets showed Trump leading when polls showed a toss-up
- State-level predictions more accurate than polling averages
- Faster reaction to late-breaking news
Lessons Learned
- Markets aggregate information: Traders incorporated data beyond polls
- Money talks: Financial incentives produce honest estimates
- Not perfect: Close races remain unpredictable
Track Future Elections with Alphascope
Alphascope aggregates election markets:
- Predictions → Current election odds
- News → Political news