Are Polymarket odds better than polls?

For elections, prediction markets have generally matched or outperformed polling averages, especially in reacting quickly to new information.

How Accurate is Polymarket? Prediction Market Performanc…

Q: How accurate is Polymarket?

Polymarket has shown strong calibration historically. In the 2024 election, Polymarket outperformed most polling averages.

Q: Is Polymarket biased?

While critics have alleged bias, Polymarket's results have been well-calibrated. The profit motive attracts diverse viewpoints.

Polymarket has become the go-to source for real-time odds on elections and events. But how accurate are these predictions?

How Prediction Market Accuracy Works

Prediction markets estimate probabilities. A market showing 70% means the event should happen roughly 70% of the time across many similar situations.

Polymarket Election Accuracy

2024 U.S. Presidential Election:

Polymarket showed Trump as the favorite for months before the election
Final odds closely matched the actual result
Prediction markets outperformed most polling averages

Polymarket vs Polls

Update speed: Markets react in real-time; polls take days
Incentive: Money at stake forces honest assessments
Information: Markets aggregate all sources, not just surveys

Is Polymarket Biased?

While critics have alleged bias, results show markets are well-calibrated. The profit motive attracts diverse viewpoints, and arbitrageurs correct mispricings.

Track Accuracy with Alphascope

Alphascope helps you analyze prediction market performance:

Predictions → View current odds across markets
News → See what's moving prices