Understanding Polymarket odds is essential for trading prediction markets. Here's how to read and interpret prices.
How Polymarket Odds Work
Polymarket uses simple decimal pricing:
- Price range: $0.01 to $0.99
- Price = Probability: $0.65 means 65% implied chance
- Payout: Winning shares pay $1.00
Yes/No Shares
- Yes shares: Pay $1 if outcome happens, $0 if not
- No shares: Pay $1 if outcome doesn't happen, $0 if it does
- Prices sum to ~$1: Yes + No ≈ $1.00 (minus spread)
Example Trade
Market: "Bitcoin above $100K by December"
- Yes price: $0.40
- If you buy Yes at $0.40 and Bitcoin exceeds $100K: you get $1.00 (profit of $0.60)
- If Bitcoin stays below $100K: you get $0 (loss of $0.40)
Polymarket vs Sportsbook Odds
| Polymarket | American | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| $0.50 | +100 | 50% |
| $0.67 | -200 | 67% |
| $0.25 | +300 | 25% |
Compare Odds with Alphascope
Alphascope helps you compare prediction market odds:
- Predictions → See odds across platforms
- News → News affecting market prices