Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange where you can trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Think of it as a stock market for events — instead of buying shares in companies, you buy contracts tied to specific outcomes like elections, economic data, or weather.
How Kalshi Works
Kalshi operates as an event contract marketplace:
- Event markets are created: Kalshi lists markets for verifiable future events (election results, Fed rate decisions, jobs reports, etc.)
- Contracts are priced: Each contract trades between $0.01 and $1.00, representing the market's implied probability
- You take a position: Buy "Yes" if you think the event will happen, "No" if you think it won't
- Event resolves: When the event occurs, winning contracts pay $1.00, losing contracts pay $0
Example: A market asks "Will unemployment be below 4% in February?" If the contract trades at $0.68, the market implies a 68% chance. If you buy Yes at $0.68 and unemployment comes in at 3.9%, you profit $0.32 per contract ($1.00 payout - $0.68 cost).
What You Can Trade on Kalshi
Kalshi offers markets across multiple categories:
Politics and Elections
- Presidential elections (national and state-by-state)
- Congressional races
- Primary outcomes
- Policy decisions and executive actions
Economics
- Federal Reserve interest rate decisions
- Monthly jobs reports (unemployment, payrolls)
- GDP growth rates
- Inflation (CPI) readings
Weather and Climate
- Temperature ranges for major cities
- Hurricane and tropical storm activity
- Snowfall totals
- Seasonal climate patterns
Other Categories
- Entertainment awards (Oscars, Grammys, etc.)
- Sports outcomes and prop bets
- Technology earnings and product launches
- Public health and FDA decisions
Regulatory Status
Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated prediction market in the US. This means:
- Legal for US residents: Unlike offshore crypto-based platforms
- Regulated operations: Subject to federal oversight and compliance requirements
- Segregated funds: Your money is kept separate from company capital
- Tax reporting: Kalshi provides 1099 forms for your trading activity
How to Get Started
Starting on Kalshi is straightforward:
- Sign up: Create an account at kalshi.com
- Verify your identity: Complete KYC verification (government ID required)
- Fund your account: Deposit via ACH bank transfer (no fees)
- Browse markets: Explore available event contracts
- Place your first trade: Start small to learn the mechanics
There's no minimum deposit requirement, but $20-$50 is a good starting point to practice without significant risk.
Understanding Contract Pricing
Kalshi contracts are priced between $0.01 and $1.00:
- $0.50 = 50% probability: Market thinks outcome is a coin flip
- $0.80 = 80% probability: Market strongly favors the outcome
- $0.20 = 20% probability: Market thinks outcome is unlikely
Your profit potential is the difference between your purchase price and the $1.00 payout. Lower prices mean higher potential percentage returns but lower probability of winning.
Fees and Costs
Kalshi's fee structure is simple:
- No deposit fees: ACH transfers are free
- No withdrawal fees: Take your money out anytime without charge
- No account fees: No monthly or maintenance costs
- Trading fees: Built into the bid-ask spread (typically 1-3 cents)
This makes Kalshi one of the most cost-effective prediction markets for small-to-medium traders.
Kalshi vs Other Platforms
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Kalshi is US-regulated and uses dollars. Polymarket is offshore, uses crypto (USDC), and technically restricts US users. Kalshi has better regulatory protection; Polymarket has more liquidity on some markets.
Kalshi vs PredictIt: PredictIt is academic/research-focused with low position limits. Kalshi is commercial with higher limits and more market variety.
Kalshi vs sports betting apps: Kalshi covers events beyond sports and operates under commodity futures law, not gambling regulations. This gives it broader market scope.
Is Kalshi Gambling?
Legally, no. Kalshi is regulated as a derivatives exchange, not a gambling platform. The CFTC treats event contracts as futures contracts based on verifiable outcomes, similar to commodities or financial futures.
That said, the risk/reward mechanics resemble betting, so approach it with the same discipline you'd apply to any speculative trading.
Bottom Line
Kalshi is a prediction market platform where you trade contracts on real-world events. It's federally regulated, uses US dollars, and offers a legal way for Americans to speculate on politics, economics, weather, and more.
If you've ever wanted to "bet on" an election, economic report, or award show with regulatory protection and transparent pricing, Kalshi is the platform to do it.