Polymarket is the largest prediction market by trading volume. It runs on the Polygon blockchain and lets you trade on elections, sports, crypto, economics, and culture using USDC.
This guide explains how Polymarket works, who uses it, and how to get started.
How Polymarket works
Polymarket lets you trade on yes/no questions about real-world events. Each question has a market where the price reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
Example: "Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2025?" trades at $0.72. That means the market thinks there's a 72% chance it happens. If you buy Yes at $0.72 and it resolves Yes, you get $1.00—a $0.28 profit per share.
You can also sell your position before the event resolves, locking in profits or cutting losses.
It's built on crypto (but feels like a normal app)
Polymarket uses USDC (a stablecoin pegged to USD) on the Polygon network. But you don't need to understand crypto to use it:
- Deposit with card or crypto: You can fund your account with a debit card. Polymarket converts it to USDC for you.
- No gas fees: Polygon transactions are fast and cheap. You won't notice blockchain mechanics.
- Withdraw to bank: You can cash out to your bank account (with some friction depending on your region).
Think of USDC as dollars with a crypto wrapper. 1 USDC = $1.
What can you trade?
Polymarket covers a wide range of events:
- Politics: Elections, legislation, Supreme Court decisions
- Crypto: Bitcoin price, ETF approvals, protocol upgrades
- Economics: Fed rates, inflation, jobs data
- Sports: Championships, MVP awards
- Culture: Celebrity events, awards shows, viral moments
Markets are created by Polymarket and resolved based on trusted sources (AP, official data, etc.).
Why Polymarket has deep liquidity
Polymarket is the most liquid prediction market for most events. Why?
- Global access: Anyone with internet can trade (except officially restricted regions).
- Market makers: Professional traders provide liquidity and tight spreads.
- Crypto native: 24/7 trading, no banking hours.
Deep liquidity means you can enter and exit positions without moving the price too much.
Is Polymarket legal?
This is the complicated part:
- US users: Polymarket officially blocks US residents due to regulatory uncertainty. Some users access it anyway via VPN, but this is against the terms of service.
- Non-US users: Polymarket is accessible in most countries without restrictions.
Unlike Kalshi (which is CFTC-regulated), Polymarket operates offshore. It's legal in most of the world, but the US regulatory status is gray.
Getting started on Polymarket
- Go to polymarket.com and connect a wallet (or create one).
- Deposit USDC or fund with a debit card.
- Browse markets and place your first trade.
There's no minimum deposit. You can start with $10 to learn the interface.
Polymarket vs Kalshi
- Regulation: Kalshi is CFTC-regulated in the US. Polymarket is offshore.
- Currency: Kalshi uses USD. Polymarket uses USDC.
- Liquidity: Polymarket usually has deeper liquidity on political and crypto markets.
- Access: Kalshi is legal for US residents. Polymarket blocks US users officially.
Many traders use both platforms—Kalshi for US-legal access and economic events, Polymarket for deeper liquidity on elections.
Using Alphascope with Polymarket
Alphascope helps you find edges on Polymarket:
- News → Breaking stories linked to affected Polymarket contracts, with AI-scored impact ratings.
- Predictions → See Polymarket and Kalshi markets side-by-side. Spot divergences and take the better price.
When the same event trades on both platforms, price gaps create arbitrage opportunities. Alphascope makes these easy to find.
FAQ
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a prediction market where you trade on real-world events using USDC. It's built on the Polygon blockchain and is the largest prediction market by volume.
Is Polymarket safe?
Polymarket has been operating since 2020 with no major security incidents. Funds are held in smart contracts. However, it's not regulated like traditional exchanges, so there's no government backstop.
Can I use Polymarket in the US?
Polymarket officially blocks US users. Some access it via VPN, but this violates the terms of service. US residents can use Kalshi as a legal alternative.
How do I withdraw from Polymarket?
You can withdraw USDC to any crypto wallet. From there, convert to USD via an exchange like Coinbase and transfer to your bank.
What's the minimum to start?
There's no minimum. You can start with $5–$10 to learn how the platform works.