Primary role
Alphascope: Cross-platform political and event-market research.
PredictIt: Real-money political-event shares for eligible users.
Coverage
Alphascope: Politics plus economics, sports, crypto, culture, and world events.
PredictIt: Focused on elections, government, courts, policy, and major political events.
Cost lens
Alphascope: Does not charge trading or withdrawal fees because it does not execute trades.
PredictIt: Current PredictIt rules and fee pages should be checked before every deposit or trade.
What PredictIt is
PredictIt lets eligible users buy and sell shares tied to political outcomes. Shares are priced from 1 to 99 cents, and the winning side is redeemed at $1 after resolution. Traders may sell before the market closes to realize a gain or limit a loss.
PredictIt describes itself as a project of the nonprofit Prediction Market Research Consortium, supported by Aristotle International, and operating under the terms of a CFTC no-action letter. That structure differs from a designated contract market such as Kalshi.
PredictIt vs Kalshi and Polymarket
PredictIt is politics-first and operates under a research-oriented no-action framework. Kalshi lists regulated event contracts across many categories. Polymarket has global and U.S. product paths with different access and infrastructure. Each can show a different probability because of trader mix, fees, limits, liquidity, and contract wording.
Compare executable bid and ask prices rather than only the last trade. A ten-point probability gap can disappear after fees, spread, position limits, or mismatched resolution rules.
How Alphascope helps political traders
Alphascope connects political prices to current news, AI forecasts, related contracts, and cross-platform odds. It is most useful before entry: identify what new information would change the probability and whether another venue confirms or contradicts the move.
- Compare election and policy markets across available venues.
- Review the exact resolution source and deadline.
- Separate last-trade prices from executable order-book prices.
- Treat model and crowd forecasts as evidence, not guaranteed picks.
Who PredictIt is best for
PredictIt is most relevant to users who primarily follow U.S. politics and want a focused market community. Traders seeking broader sports, economics, weather, crypto, or culture coverage may prefer another execution venue while still using PredictIt as a political sentiment reference.
predictit FAQ
What is PredictIt?
PredictIt is a real-money political forecasting market operated for educational and research purposes under a CFTC no-action framework. Users trade shares tied to supported political outcomes.
Is PredictIt the same as Kalshi?
No. Their regulatory structures, market catalogs, fees, limits, and contracts differ. PredictIt is politics-focused and operates under a no-action framework; Kalshi is a designated contract market.
Does Alphascope execute PredictIt trades?
No. Alphascope provides independent research and does not access PredictIt accounts or place orders.
Before you use this predictit guide
A good prediction market guide should help you make a more precise decision, not just explain the headline. Before trading, convert the market price into an implied probability, read the resolution criteria, and compare the contract with nearby markets. If your thesis depends on a news catalyst, check whether that catalyst directly affects settlement or only changes short-term sentiment.
The same checklist applies across Bitcoin, elections, sports, and other event contracts. A trade can look attractive because the payout is large, but payout alone does not create edge. Edge comes from a better probability estimate than the current price, plus enough liquidity to enter without giving away the advantage through spread and slippage.
Checklist for applying the guide to a live market
First, confirm that the market title and resolution source match the event you intend to trade. Second, compare the live price with your own estimate and write down the difference in percentage points. Third, check liquidity and maximum loss before sizing the position. Fourth, review related markets to see whether the same information has already been priced elsewhere. Fifth, decide what evidence would make you exit or update the thesis.
Alphascope supports that workflow through the odds board, AI predictions, and news impact pages. Use this guide as the educational layer, then use the live pages to check whether the current market still matches the setup described here.
How to know whether the setup is still current
A guide can explain the structure of a market, but the live price decides whether the setup is still actionable. Check when the market last moved, whether new information has arrived since the guide was written, and whether the strongest catalyst has already been priced in. If the market has moved far in the direction of the thesis, the remaining return may be too small for the risk.
If the market has not moved despite relevant news, review the resolution criteria before assuming traders missed the story. The market may be ignoring the news because it does not affect settlement. The best use of any guide is to understand the mechanics, then verify the current contract and price before making a decision.
