How to Bet on Fed Interest Rate Decisions

Federal Reserve rate decisions are one of the most popular markets on Kalshi. Here's how to trade them.

How Fed Rate Markets Work

Each FOMC meeting has markets for different outcomes: rate cut (25bps, 50bps), hold, or rate hike. You buy the outcome you expect.

Where to Trade

Kalshi offers the most Fed rate markets. Contracts settle based on the official FOMC statement after each meeting.

What Moves the Odds

CPI data, jobs reports, Fed speeches, and market expectations all shift the odds. Track them with Alphascope's Fed rate odds tracker.

Strategy

The edge comes from positioning before scheduled data releases. If you believe inflation will come in hotter than expected, buy rate-hold or rate-hike contracts before the CPI print.