SYRACUSE, N.Y. - I'm afraid to say the comfortable and sunny weather is over for a while in Central New York. A Weather ALERT is in effect for two separate but related severe conditions starting midday Tuesday. Extreme heat will develop behind a warm front arriving today. Temperatures will climb to 90 or above this afternoon with the heat index even higher, and readings will turn dangerous by tomorrow afternoon. On top of that, scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are in the mix both days!
Here's a look at what we are expecting from the scattered activity primarily during the midday and afternoon Tuesday. Wind damage from a gusty thunderstorm is a high threat, with a lower threat of large hail, flash flooding, or even a possible tornado. After 3 or 4 PM, the chance of thunderstorms is lower, but could continue in isolated fashion up until sunset.
The second, longer duration part of this Weather Alert is for rising heat and humidity. Tuesday, we already have a Heat Advisory for most, but not all, of the area from Noon until 8 PM, when the heat index temperature will reach a maximum of 96 in Syracuse. The heat index could go into the upper 90s for areas west of Onondaga County. This is bordering on a dangerous level, and safety precautions from the heat are encouraged.
The next two or three days following Tuesday will be even worse if you don't like it hot. And who does like triple-digit heat? An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for all of Central New York from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM Friday when the heat index temperature will reach 105+ degrees. In Syracuse, this will peak near 106 Thursday afternoon due to a warm starting point in the morning, high humidity, and very little cloud cover. For places to the west of Onondaga County, we may see it reach a sizzling 109 degrees! By Saturday, the 4th of July, temperatures and humidity levels will finally be on the decrease.
TUESDAY: A warm front brings rising winds, temperatures, and humidity through the day. Maximum heat index in the mid-90s. Heat Advisory from Noon to 8 PM. Morning hazy sun, then rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms late morning through the evening. There is a risk for severe weather with damaging winds, large hail, flooding rain, and possible tornadoes, mostly between 11 AM and 3 PM. Wind: S 5-10 MPH in the morning, then WSW 5-15 with gusts to 20+ MPH. High: 91.
Here's a look at the high temperature map for the area. Keep in mind, the heat index, or real feel, will be higher!
TUESDAY NIGHT: It will stay warm and humid overnight. Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog forming. Wind: S 5-10 early on, then SSW 3-8 MPH. Low: 75.
Here's a look at the low temperature map for Tuesday overnight:
High temperatures hit the 90s for another three days after Tuesday. This would make it an official heat wave, the first of the year for Syracuse. And record high and low temperatures could be broken. I'm forecasting 95 on Wednesday, which would tie the daily record for July 1st, and 99 on Thursday, which is just a degree shy of the record for July 2nd. Once again, the heat index temperature is higher for all three days, with Thursday the hottest.
Here's a look at the complete 7-day forecast from Tuesday morning:
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with Isolated showers in the morning to midday, then hazy sunshine blends with clouds. Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms return middle to late afternoon through sunset. Becoming a bit breezy for the afternoon, hot & very humid! Maximum heat index in the mid 100s, Extreme Heat Watch. Wind: SW 5-10 in the morning, then W 5-15 with gusts to 20+ MPH. High: 95. (Record: 95 in 1931). Low: 76.
THURSDAY: Very hot and humid! Maximum heat index in the mid-upper 100s, Extreme Heat Watch! Hazy sunshine mixing with clouds, and a dry day. High: 99. (Record: 100 in 1931). Low: 77.
FRIDAY: Continued hot and humid! Maximum heat index near 100, Extreme Heat Watch! Expect hazy sunshine mixed with clouds in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon to evening. High: 93. (Record: 96 in 1966). Low: 74.
SATURDAY (4th of July): There are uncertainties about how much sunshine versus clouds and dry versus wet weather we will see. For now, I am forecasting a partly sunny to mostly cloudy sky with a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s, with a maximum heat index near 90.
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