How We Rate Rumors
0-20%: Unlikely - Lacks credible sources
21-40%: Questionable - Some concerns remain
41-60%: Plausible - Reasonable evidence
61-80%: Probable - Strong evidence
81-100%: Highly Likely - Multiple reliable sources
RUMOR ASSESSMENT
90%
Highly Likely
The Steam Deck OLED returned in stock yesterday, but with a catch: the price has been significantly increased in all regions. This doesn't bode well at all for the upcoming Steam Machine, as, according to a tidbit shared by known leaker Brad Lynch, its price will be much higher than expected.
"Take this with a grain of salt, because it was just whispers in my ear. But back when I was told a figure for what Valve’s estimated price they’d have to set the starting price of Steam Machine, it was still higher than today’s Steam Deck prices," the leaker said on X. Considering the Steam Deck OLED 1TB model is now priced at $949, it's now 100% clear how the Steam Machine is not going to be a cheap gaming system.
Despite this information, some are still clinging to the hope that the Steam Deck price increase may be Valve's attempt to keep the cost of the Steam Machine down.
"Is it a possibility that the steam deck price increase is to eat costs to allow the machine to be priced lower? Or wishful thinking," asked user Trevor Stone. "I have no idea. I doubt it, but I also haven’t been told any “inside info” except the tidbits in OP," replied Brad, keeping expectations in check.
While the new Steam Machine was a great idea on paper, it couldn't have been announced at a worse time. Revealed back in November alongside the new Steam Controller and Steam Frame VR headset right during the initial phases of the RAMaggeddon, the system was supposed to launch in early 2026, but the worsening prices of RAM and storage forced Valve to delay a system that is going to struggle considerably on the market with its now almost certain very high price and the performance it will deliver with its somewhat dated hardware. Price that could get even higher if the queue system that will be in place to prevent scalpers from getting all launch units won't work as intended.
Earlier this year, former Xbox executive Mike Ybarra believed the Steam Machine would be PlayStation's biggest competitor in the future, as the Xbox Project Helix will target a very different audience. Judging from the news, however, Sony's dominance in the market is unlikely to be threatened by it.
