Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $75,000 level, while the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has fallen to -160, its lowest reading since early February, when bitcoin bottomed near $60,000.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index tracks the price difference between bitcoin traded on Coinbase, a major U.S. exchange, and the broader global market average. It is widely viewed as a key gauge of U.S. capital flows, institutional demand, and overall market sentiment.
The weakness comes as spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded seven consecutive trading days of outflows, alongside reports that an investor sold $1.29 billion worth of BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF in a dark pool transaction.
Deribit Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Pequignot says sentiment has shifted noticeably since bitcoin (BTC) briefly climbed above $82,000 in early May, with traders now focused on inflation concerns, weakness in global bond markets and escalating tensions involving Iran.
The change in tone has also appeared in crypto investment products, with spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posting seven straight days of outflows, while Strategy (MSTR) paused aggressive bitcoin purchases to focus on reducing debt. Against that backdrop, roughly $8 billion worth of bitcoin and ethereum options are also set to expire on May 29, an event traders are closely watching for potential short-term volatility.
Despite the more defensive market mood, implied volatility across crypto markets has fallen sharply. “Deribit bitcoin’s DVOL Index sits at a remarkably depressed 36 handle,” Pequignot wrote, while ethereum volatility “has cratered to its 1st percentile.” Still, options positioning suggests traders remain uneasy beneath the surface. “This positive skew reveals a quiet undercurrent of nervousness,” Pequignot said, pointing to elevated demand for downside protection even as broader volatility measures remain subdued.
He identified $75,000 as a key near-term support level for bitcoin, while saying a move above $80,000 “would force short-covering and might rapidly open the door to the $82-85k region.”
"Adjusted for inflation, the SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs will raise as much or more than the 300 internet and TMT IPOs did in 2000," noted Michael Burry on Wednesday morning.
His attached research showed that there were 446 IPOs in 2000 that raised $108.15 billion, and 537 IPOs in 1999 that raised $95.33 billion.
At the time, it marked the top of one of history's great market bubbles. The numbers today, though, seem positively quaint, with SpaceX alone expected to raise upwards of $80 billion in its public offering next month.
Just a $70 billion company one year ago, memory chip maker Micron Technology (MU) yesterday soared 21% and topped a $1 trillion valuation alongside a massive price target hike from UBS.
South Korea's SK Hynix followed suit, rising 9.3% in Seoul on Wednesday to top $1 trillion in market value. It's shares are higher by more than 1,000% over the past year. Earlier this month, peer Samsung Electronics also topped $1 trillion.
The memory stocks are one leg of the AI boom, with investors expecting chip shortages — and thus pricing power — to last into 2028.
Micron is higher by another 8% in U.S. premarket trading Wednesday morning, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq ahead 0.9%.
Sentiment in the gutter
Bitcoin (BTC), meanwhile, is down 1.5% over the past 24 hours at $75,800, as the action in AI-related names continues to draw attention and capital from crypto markets, which — despite decent bounces from the early February lows — remain engulfed in poor vibes.
"Nobody cares about bitcoin right now ... and you just love to see it," said analyst James Check earlier this week. "Bitcoin sentiment is in the absolute gutter, and the bears are measurably the most confident they have been in a long time."
"Anger, annoyance, disappointment, it's all happening right now."
