San Francisco, California – A free-for-all primary has put Democrats at risk of being shut out of the race for governor in an otherwise safe state: California.
Stretching along the west coast of the United States, California has a reputation for leaning blue. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state nearly two to one. Not since 2011 has a Republican held the governor's mansion, or any statewide office at all.
But a crowded field of candidates, coupled with an unusual primary system, has made possible the previously unimaginable: a governor's race in which no Democrat advances to the final round.
“We've never seen anything like this before," said Dan Schnur, a political science professor at the University of California, Berkeley.
California has a non-partisan "jungle" primary, in which the top two vote-getters move forward to the general election regardless of their party affiliation.
Tight contests, however, could make the margin for victory small. No fewer than 24 Democrats will appear on the primary ballot to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom, and the field lacks a standout.
“There has not been a campaign for California governor in modern political history with this large of a field of candidates, or with such an amorphous field to choose from,” said Schnur.
Meanwhile, voter surveys have consistently shown two Republicans, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, at or near the top of the field.
One March poll, for instance, showed Hilton with 17 percent support and Bianco with 16 percent, the highest rates of any candidate.
The race has prompted existential questions about Democratic strategy and leadership. In a state with more than 10.3 million registered Democrats, could the left-wing party fail to even qualify for the general election?
For some critics, the problem is not the party but the primary system itself.
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks lamented that the jungle primary could mean that “half of the registered voters in the state don't end up with a candidate of their choosing in the general election".
“That seems like a system that needs to be revisited, revised, and potentially repealed,” said Hicks.
Normally, primaries are used to winnow down the candidates seeking to represent the two main political parties, the Democrats and Republicans. One candidate from each party progresses to the general election.
But in a "jungle" primary, party affiliation does not matter. The vote count alone assures a candidate of advancing to the general election.
Only one other state, Washington, uses jungle primaries. The system in California got its start in 2010, as part of a bipartisan ballot initiative.
Moderate Republicans, including Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state’s last Republican governor, championed the concept. It was pitched as a way to give independent voters a say in shaping the general election field and improve voter participation.
Fifty-three percent of Californian voters backed the initiative, and the very first jungle primary was held the next year, in 2011.
In the 15 years since, advocates believe the system has achieved its objectives. The Unite America Institute, a nonpartisan nonprofit, found in a 2023 report that California’s primary system had mitigated political polarisation and increased competition.
According to the report, fewer than 20 percent of primaries were uncontested after the jungle primary system was put in place. That was a stark decline from the 80 percent of uncontested primaries before the transition.
Schnur noted that the system has yielded benefits for Democrats. He quips that California is a two-party state: "They're just both Democratic parties."
Both sides are socially progressive, but one is more centrist on economic policy, according to Schnur. The top-two primary system allows these two sides of the Democratic Party to co-exist, thereby mitigating polarisation in California's state politics.
“I'd argue that, under a more traditional system, the state legislature would be a much more ideologically extreme body than it is today," Schnur said.
But in a jungle primary, a party with a plethora of candidates can also face a disadvantage. Ahead of Tuesday's vote, six leading Democrats have split the party's base of support.
They include former US Representative Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a moderate who has drawn strong backing from Silicon Valley tech leaders.
In the final days of the primary race, however, two Democrats have broken ahead.
Xavier Becerra, the secretary for the US Department of Health and Human Services under former President Joe Biden, has seen his poll numbers surge recently. A May 13 survey from Emerson College put him in first place in the jungle primary, with 19 percent support.
Also at the forefront is progressive Tom Steyer, a billionaire former hedge fund manager who unsuccessfully ran for president in 2020. His self-financed campaign is expected to be the most expensive in the state's history.
The Emerson College poll found him tied for second place with Hilton, the Republican, both with 17 percent support.
The field has also narrowed after the campaigns of some major Democratic candidates fizzled — or erupted in flames.
Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis had hoped to replace Newsom after her final term expires, but she dropped out of the race last year amid middling support. More recently, in April, US Representative Eric Swalwell abandoned his campaign and resigned from Congress amid allegations of sexual misconduct.
His name, however, will still appear on the ballot. So too will that of former state controller Betty Yee, despite the fact that she suspended her bid for the governor's mansion in April.
But leaders in the Democratic Party have exercised a light touch in trying to shape the field of candidates.
Hicks, California's party chair, did urge the contenders in a March 3 letter to “honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign". But that message came just three days before the primary ballot was finalised.
Still, Hicks explained to Al Jazeera that it was not his place to pick winners and losers.
“I don't think it's any one person, any one leader's place to completely dictate what the field is and isn't and tell people that they can or can't run," Hicks said.
Top national officials have also refused to endorse any candidates in the governor's race.
Governor Newsom, for example, has stayed out of the race. His blessing could have propelled a candidate to the forefront, but experts say the risk of endorsing a losing candidate could tarnish his reputation before a rumoured 2028 presidential run.
Even Biden has declined to endorse Becerra, his former cabinet secretary.
Adding to the confusion in the Democratic field was speculation that heavy hitters might jump into the race.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris was floated as a possible gubernatorial candidate after her loss in the 2024 presidential election, but she ultimately declined to enter the race last July.
US Senator Alex Padilla and California Attorney General Rob Bonta were also rumoured to be exploring bids. Both men, however, opted not to run, citing a need to use their current roles to stand up to Republican President Donald Trump.
Schnur, the political science professor, speculated that the political melee on the Democratic side could have discouraged some of those candidates from entering the race.
"By the time that Harris and these other candidates started looking at the race, there was such a large field, and it was so unsettled that the prospect of getting in may have looked like a political risk," he said.
But some critics have asserted that Harris and other top-level Democrats may have avoided the race to dodge any association with California's heated political battles.
In addition to its persistent struggles with homelessness and housing costs, the state faces a multibillion-dollar budget deficit. Republicans like Hilton and Bianco lay those problems at the feet of the state's Democratic leadership.
"We need a change from those policies, not more of the same," Hilton said during a May gubernatorial debate.
But the Democratic leaders argue their party has steered the state through multiple crises, without Republican help.
“It's been Democrats that have led the state over the last 10-plus years — that have addressed issues like affordability and healthcare and public safety and education,” Hicks said.
“Certainly, the other party in the mix, the California Republicans, have done little to nothing to provide any sort of a meaningful alternative.”
The winners of Tuesday's primary will likely be candidates who best sell their plan to improve California’s cost-of-living problem.
Throughout the election season, Emerson College has identified the economy and housing as the top two voter issues facing the state, far outpacing concerns like healthcare and immigration.
In a survey released in February, the Public Policy Institute of California also found that nearly a third of Californians named inflation and the cost of living as their top concern for the state.
Because the Democrats have been in power since 2011, their party has fielded much of the blame, according to Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego.
Still, Kousser doubts that the primary's Republican frontrunners represent the will of California's majority, given the widespread backlash to Trump's policies across the state.
“There's a lot of dissatisfaction,” Kousser said. “But the direction that Donald Trump has taken the national Republican Party means it's almost inconceivable — other than through a quirk of the top-two primary — that Californians would turn to someone as tied to Trump as Steve Hilton to fix it.”
As Democratic hopefuls seek victory in the jungle primary, several are seeking to capitalise on that anti-Trump sentiment. Porter, for instance, appeared on stage at this year's state Democratic convention with a sign that read, "F*** Trump."
Experts point out that confronting Trump has helped figures like Governor Newsom elevate their national profile. But Schnur warned that the strategy will only take Democrats so far.
In his opinion, Tuesday's jungle primary will come down to the issue of consumer costs.
“It's pretty difficult for any of the candidates to argue that they hate Donald Trump more than the others do,” Schnur said. “So we're left with this political mosh pit in which the candidates all act like they know how to solve this affordability crisis.”
