The outlook for an initial public offering from artificial intelligence platform OpenAI is changing after a New York Times report said the company may delay a debut on the public market until next year.
So when might the company formally announce an IPO? Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think it will now arrive early next year.
Speculators say that there's a 59% chance that an IPO by OpenAI is officially announced by March 1, 2027. Traders place only about one-in-three odds that an IPO is announced before Jan. 1, but think there's a 73% chance of an announcement by June 2027.
Kalshi considers an IPO confirmed, and thus resolves the contracts to "yes," if any of the following occur: the Securities and Exchange Commission declares a company's S-1 form effective, the IPO has an official price or if the company receives a trading ticker.
Previously, OpenAI was widely expected to go for an IPO in 2026, and the company led by CEO Sam Altman confidentially filed to go public on June 8.
The New York Times said SpaceX's public market debut — the first of what was expected to be several mega-cap IPOs this year — has made OpenAI's advisors more cautious. OpenAI has worried that Elon Musk's company's initial rally and subsequent fall signals retail investors may have less interest in buying, the report said.
At the beginning of June, OpenAI's chief rival Anthropic confidentially filed for an IPO. Traders on Kalshi think there's a 70% chance Anthropic officially announces a public market debut by December.
