A verdict which leaves Le Pen's political future hanging in the balance
Hugh Schofield
Paris Correspondent
This is a judgment of Solomon that leaves Marine Le Pen’s political future still hanging in the balance.
On the one hand, the panel of appeal judges has been significantly more lenient than the original court on the question of ineligibility.
The five years handed down at the original trial has been cut, in effect, to 15 months. This is time already served (since the original sentence) so Le Pen is now, juridically, able to run.
However, there’s a but.
This is the confirmation that Le Pen must also serve a year in jail. In practice not in jail, but at home with an electronic tag.
Le Pen has herself said that she would not run as candidate in those conditions, because she would not be fully at liberty.
In theory then she should now be handing over the candidacy to Jordan Bardella.
But there’s another consideration. Can this period with an electronic tag be reduced with good behaviour? In most cases the answer is yes. Will that then be a consideration too?
The court decision was supposed to end the suspense over who will run as the nationalist candidate in the presidential election next year.
So far it hasn’t.
France's allies are watching very closely
Katya Adler
BBC Europe editor reporting from Paris
Will she, won’t she?
Many of France’s European allies were watching the Court of Appeal so closely today.
Now they await Marine Le Pen’s appearance on French TV this evening to hear her decision as to whether she will indeed canvass to become France’s next president – or not.
It matters. France is the European Union’s second largest economy. A nuclear power with a significant military (by European standards).
The fact that Eurosceptic, traditionally Nato-unenthusiastic Le Pen and her protegee Jordan Bardella, who could run for president in her stead, are head and shoulders ahead of other possible presidential candidates in opinion polls is a huge worry in Brussels.
But there are a fair few European decision-makers who believe, if Jordan Bardella becomes France’s next president, he could be more ‘reasonable’ than Le Pen.
Others whisper that Bardella’s youth and political inexperience could also mean he’ll trip up and lose popularity between now and next year’s election.
Nine months is a very long time in politics.
A number of so-called "disruptor" parties across Europe, however - like Germany’s popular Alternative for Germany (AfD) - are thought likely to use today’s ruling by the Court of Appeal.
The ruling, which includes Le Pen having to wear an electronic tag, could be used to support their assertion that the establishment will use all means at their disposal, including the justice system, to try to crush the voice of the people.
Le Pen found guilty but it's her decision not to run, not the court's
Paul Kirby
Europe digital editor
The court has upheld Marine Le Pen's guilty sentence. But with the judges requiring her to serve one year with an electronic tag, she has already said she will not run.
Any time with a tag would prevent her from campaigning properly, she has argued, as she would have to seek authorisation every time she held a campaign rally.
So it's really her decision not to run, not the court's, unless she changes her mind.
By reducing the period she is barred from public office in effect to just 15 months, as 30 of the 45 months are suspended, she could still run for the presidency.
They have left the ball in her court, but Le Pen in her own words has said she will not run under these conditions.
Five possible outcomes for Le Pen
Paul Kirby
Europe digital editor
There are five possible outcomes that could be heard at the Court of Appeal today.
Acquittal: If Le Pen is acquitted, she will be clear to run for the presidency with her reputation intact. This verdict is seen as unlikely.
Guilty: If the court finds her guilty and bars her from office for more than two years (from 31 March 2025), she will not be able to stand. That is because the clock has continued ticking since the five-year ban on public office was handed down.
Guilty with reduced ban: It would be a different story if she were handed a ban on public office of two years or less as she would then be free to run.
Guilty with electronic tag: If the court follows the recommendation of prosecutors and the four-year jail term remains, she would face one year with an electronic tag, rather than two, with the rest suspended.
Appealing against the appeal: She could still challenge a guilty verdict at France's top court, the Court of Cassation - and she would have 10 days to decide. But that would still take several months and hold her back from campaigning - and she has indicated she would not do so.
Even if she is cleared, prosecutors might decide to go to the top court.
What to look out for when verdict starts
Paul Kirby
Europe digital editor
The first idea we will get of what Marine Le Pen can expect will come when the judge announces whether she and the other 11 defendants in the appeal case are guilty or innocent.
If she's innocent, she can run for the presidency and her appeal is won. This is considered unlikely.
If she's guilty and the court upholds the original March 2025 verdict, the focus then turns to what the sentence will be, and that may take time.
If it's a guilty verdict the two key questions are: will she have to wear an electronic tag and will she be barred from public office for more than two years?
Le Pen says any sentence with an ankle bracelet would stop her campaigning for the presidency. Prosecutors want her to wear a tag for a year as part of a four-year prison sentence, with three years suspended.
Her original sentence had a five-year ban on public office and the clock started running on that in March last year.
Anything that bars her from public office when France votes for a new president in April and May 2027 means she cannot be president. In other words, two years or more after the ban took effect.
Even after sentencing the story may not be over. Both Le Pen and the prosecution have 10 days to appeal to a higher court, but an appeal could take months and she would really prefer to avoid that.
'Nothing can justify' Le Pen being excluded from president's race - Bardella
Ahead of the decision from the appeal court, National Rally President Jordan Bardella says "nothing can justify Marine Le Pen being excluded from the choice of the French people and prevented from presenting herself before them".
Writing on X, Bardella describes it as an "important day, an extraordinary one".
"At a time when millions of French people place their hopes and trust in her, depriving her of the possibility of seeking their votes would constitute a grave assault on the free choice of the French people," he says.
Reflecting on the pair's long history, Bardella adds his support for Le Pen is "total", and that his "loyalty will never depend on circumstances".
"I do not forget the battles that we promised each other to fight together," he says.
Hearing from members of the public hoping to witness today's verdict
Katya Adler
BBC Europe editor reporting from Paris
I'm at the Palais de Justice courthouse in Paris, speaking to members of the public hoping to witness today's verdict.
Amélina, a 21-year-old law student, told me she's queuing here hoping to see justice done.
She says it's a historic moment because Marine Le Pen is so well known and stands for so much for so many - both positive and negative.
Amélina says she's not a fan of Le Pen or her party. She adds she's here to show that in France justice is blind and if you break the law there are consequences.
Meanwhile, Alexandre Mahoudeaux, a 19-year-old political science student, tells me he is a passionate supporter of Le Pen and that she has inspired him to get interested in politics.
According to him, her gift is that she listens to people and pays attention to the issues troubling them.
He tells me that in France the justice system is politicised and he believes Le Pen is being treated more harshly than others from more traditional political parties facing similar charges.
