As President Donald Trump faces near-record-low disapproval ratings, a new Washington Post-Ipsos poll, conducted July 8-13, found that Democrats have a slim advantage over Republicans ahead of November's midterm elections.
Still, Democratic supporters are more motivated to vote. The WaPo-Ipsos poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, two years after Kamala Harris' 2024 loss to Trump.
The poll also found that Democrats' edge grows to 8 points among those "absolutely certain to vote" as 53% of highly motivated voters support Democrats while 45% support Republicans. Trump has faced low approval numbers amid issues with the economy and the Iran war.
The Post-Ipsos survey contrasted Democrats' current polling outcomes with 2018. Democrats had a 10-point lead in support for Congress ahead of his first presidential midterm election in which Democrats gained 40 U.S. House seats. Republicans maintained their majority in the Senate.
Trump continues to face waning approval numbers. His overall approval rating stands at 37 percent in the WaPo-Ipsos poll. A new Economist/YouGov poll, conducted July 10-13, found that the same number of Americans approve of his job performance.
House Speaker Mike Johnson currently has a two-vote margin and cannot afford defections as Republicans hope to enact Trump's agenda. Republicans currently have a 53-47 seat majority in the Senate. Partisan gerrymandering has thrust further uncertainty into Democrats' hopes to regain control of both chambers.
The poll found that Democrats are 10% more likely to certainly vote this year than Republicans, which eclipses their two-point edge in 2018.
Contributing: Fernando Cervantes Jr., Zachary Schermele
