Polymarket offers prediction markets on economic outcomes including recessions and Federal Reserve policy. Here's how to track economic predictions.
Recession Markets
- Recession timing: Will there be a recession by date?
- GDP growth: Quarterly GDP outcomes
- NBER declaration: Official recession calls
Fed Rate Cut Markets
- Rate decisions: Will Fed cut/raise at next meeting?
- Rate targets: Fed funds rate by year-end
- Number of cuts: Total cuts in a year
What Moves Economic Markets
- Economic data: Jobs reports, inflation, GDP
- Fed communications: FOMC statements, Powell speeches
- Financial conditions: Market stress, credit spreads
- Global events: Trade policy, geopolitical risks
Polymarket vs Fed Funds Futures
Traditional rate expectations are priced in CME Fed funds futures. Polymarket offers an alternative with potentially different pricing and easier accessibility.
Track Economic Markets with Alphascope
Alphascope aggregates prediction markets:
- Predictions → Economic markets
- News → Economic news affecting odds