Prediction markets have gone mainstream. What started as a niche corner of finance is now a multi-billion-dollar industry with regulated exchanges, mobile apps, and millions of active traders. But with more platforms than ever, choosing the right one matters. Fees, market selection, regulatory status, and user experience vary wildly between apps.
This guide is the definitive comparison for 2026. We break down Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and OG (Overtime) side by side so you can pick the platform that fits your trading style, location, and goals.
The prediction market landscape in 2026
The 2024 US election was a watershed moment. Polymarket processed over $3.5 billion in election volume, Kalshi won its landmark CFTC lawsuit allowing political event contracts, and mainstream media started citing prediction market odds alongside traditional polls. Since then, the ecosystem has expanded:
- Regulated exchanges like Kalshi and Robinhood have added event contracts for US traders
- Crypto-native platforms like Polymarket continue to dominate global volume
- Play-money and reputation markets like Manifold offer risk-free forecasting
- Sports-adjacent platforms like OG (Overtime) blend prediction markets with sports betting
Each serves a different audience. Let's break them down.
Kalshi: The regulated US leader
Best for: US residents who want legal, regulated trading with real money.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM) — the only fully regulated prediction market exchange in the US. After winning its federal lawsuit in 2024 to list political event contracts, Kalshi has expanded rapidly into economics, weather, culture, and sports markets.
- Regulation: CFTC-regulated. Customer funds are segregated and audited.
- Markets: 900+ active markets across politics, economics, weather, sports, entertainment, and finance
- Fees: No trading fees on most contracts. Withdrawal via ACH is free; wire withdrawals carry a small fee. See our full Kalshi fees breakdown for details.
- Deposits: ACH, wire transfer, debit card
- Mobile app: iOS and Android. Clean interface, real-time order book.
- US availability: Legal in most US states (some state-level restrictions apply)
- Position limits: $100K on political contracts per CFTC rules; higher limits on other categories
Strengths: Regulatory certainty, fiat deposits, strong mobile experience, growing liquidity. Weaknesses: Position limits on political markets, less liquidity than Polymarket on headline events, no international access.
Polymarket: The global volume king
Best for: Non-US traders who want the deepest liquidity and widest market selection.
Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain and operates as an offshore, unregulated platform. Despite being officially unavailable to US residents, it dominates global prediction market volume, particularly on politics and crypto-adjacent events. For a detailed head-to-head, see our Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison.
- Regulation: Unregulated. Settled with CFTC in 2022. No customer fund protections.
- Markets: 1,500+ active markets. Strongest in politics, crypto, geopolitics, and culture.
- Fees: Near-zero trading fees. Costs come from blockchain gas fees (minimal on Polygon) and potential spreads. See our Polymarket fees guide.
- Deposits: USDC, crypto wallets, credit/debit card via onramp
- Mobile app: Progressive web app (PWA) on mobile. Native-like but not on app stores.
- US availability: Officially blocked. VPN usage is against TOS and risky.
- Position limits: None. Large traders can deploy significant capital.
Strengths: Deepest liquidity, largest market catalog, no position limits, fast settlement. Weaknesses: No US access, no regulatory protections, crypto-only deposits, resolution disputes can arise.
Manifold: The free forecasting lab
Best for: Forecasting enthusiasts, researchers, and beginners who want to learn without risking real money.
Manifold operates on play money (called "mana"). Anyone can create markets on anything, making it the most open and experimental platform in the space. The community is heavy on rationalists, AI researchers, and policy wonks.
- Regulation: Not applicable — play money, not a financial platform.
- Markets: 10,000+ user-created markets on virtually any topic imaginable
- Fees: Free. You earn mana through correct predictions and can buy more.
- Deposits: Free mana on signup. Optional mana purchases available.
- Mobile app: Web-based. Mobile-responsive but no native app.
- US availability: Available everywhere. No geographic restrictions.
- Unique features: Anyone can create markets, strong community, transparent resolution, API access for researchers
Strengths: Zero risk, massive market variety, great for learning, strong community, open API. Weaknesses: No real-money payouts (with limited exceptions), less serious traders can distort prices, some markets have low engagement.
OG (Overtime): The sports prediction market
Best for: Sports bettors looking for a prediction market experience with better odds and peer-to-peer trading.
OG (previously Overtime Markets) bridges sports betting and prediction markets. Built on blockchain infrastructure, it offers sports event contracts with prediction market mechanics — no bookmaker edge, just peer-to-peer pricing.
- Regulation: Crypto-native, unregulated in most jurisdictions.
- Markets: 500+ sports markets across NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, soccer, tennis, and more
- Fees: Low fees built into the spread. Generally cheaper than traditional sportsbooks.
- Deposits: Crypto (USDC, ETH) on supported chains
- Mobile app: Web-based dApp with mobile optimization
- US availability: Gray area. Not officially licensed in the US.
- Unique features: Parlay support, live markets, liquidity pool model for instant execution
Strengths: Better odds than traditional sportsbooks, no bookmaker edge, fast settlement, growing liquidity. Weaknesses: Sports-only, crypto-required, regulatory uncertainty, less intuitive for non-crypto users.
Detailed comparison table
| Feature | Kalshi | Polymarket | Manifold | OG (Overtime) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation | CFTC-regulated DCM | Unregulated (offshore) | N/A (play money) | Unregulated (crypto) |
| Currency | USD | USDC | Mana (play money) | USDC / ETH |
| Trading fees | 0% on most contracts | ~0% (minimal gas) | Free | ~1-2% spread |
| Active markets | 900+ | 1,500+ | 10,000+ | 500+ |
| Market categories | Politics, economics, weather, sports, culture | Politics, crypto, geopolitics, culture, science | Anything (user-created) | Sports only |
| US availability | Yes (most states) | No (blocked) | Yes (global) | Gray area |
| Deposit methods | ACH, wire, debit card | Crypto, card onramp | Free / optional purchase | Crypto wallets |
| Mobile app | Native iOS + Android | PWA (web-based) | Web (responsive) | Web dApp |
| Position limits | $100K political / higher others | None | N/A | Pool-dependent |
| Settlement speed | Minutes to hours | Minutes to hours | Creator-resolved | Automated on-chain |
| API access | Yes (REST API) | Yes (REST + on-chain) | Yes (open API) | Limited |
Best platform by use case
Best for beginners: Manifold
If you've never traded a prediction market before, start with Manifold. You get free mana, there's no risk of losing real money, and you can experiment with thousands of markets to develop your forecasting instincts. Once you're consistently profitable on play money, transition to Kalshi or Polymarket with real capital.
Best for active US traders: Kalshi
Kalshi is the clear winner for US-based traders who want to deploy real capital legally. Regulatory certainty, fiat deposits, and a polished mobile app make it the most accessible real-money platform. The growing market catalog and improving liquidity are closing the gap with Polymarket. Check out apps like Kalshi for more US-friendly options.
Best for crypto-native traders: Polymarket
If you're already comfortable with crypto wallets and live outside the US, Polymarket is hard to beat. Deepest liquidity, widest market selection, no position limits, and near-zero fees. The trade-off is regulatory risk and the lack of consumer protections.
Best for sports: OG (Overtime)
For sports-focused trading, OG offers peer-to-peer pricing that typically beats traditional sportsbooks. If you're already in the crypto ecosystem and primarily want sports markets, OG is worth exploring. Traditional bettors may prefer Kalshi's regulated sports contracts instead.
Kalshi vs Robinhood prediction markets
Robinhood entered prediction markets in 2024 with event contracts on its existing brokerage platform. While convenient if you already have a Robinhood account, its prediction market offering is much smaller than Kalshi's — typically limited to high-profile political and economic events. Kalshi offers far more markets, better odds, and deeper liquidity. Robinhood's edge is brand recognition and the ability to trade stocks and event contracts in one app.
How to choose the right platform
Ask yourself these questions:
- Are you in the US? Kalshi is the only fully legal option. Manifold works for play money. Robinhood offers limited event contracts.
- Do you want to use real money? If no, start with Manifold. If yes, Kalshi (US) or Polymarket (global).
- What do you want to trade? Sports → OG or Kalshi. Politics → Kalshi or Polymarket. Anything niche → Manifold.
- Are you comfortable with crypto? If not, stick with Kalshi (fiat deposits) or Manifold (no money needed).
- How much capital are you deploying? Large positions favor Polymarket (no limits). Kalshi has $100K caps on political markets.
Many serious traders use multiple platforms. The arbitrage opportunities between Kalshi and Polymarket alone can be significant — AlphaScope tracks these price gaps in real time.
Compare platforms with Alphascope
Alphascope aggregates data across all major prediction market platforms:
- News → Real-time news connected to market movements
- Predictions → AI-powered market analysis and forecasts
- Arbitrage → Cross-platform price gap detection