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Gemini’s event-contract product is Gemini Predictions, associated with the Gemini Titan exchange. The official Titan page identifies Gemini Titan, LLC as a CFTC-registered designated contract market and links its rulebook, agreements, filings and contract terms. This guide concerns that trading product, rather than forecasts generated by Google’s Gemini AI.
Reviewed November 9, 2026. Fee programs, access and market conditions can change. Examples below are hypothetical and do not reproduce a live order or guarantee an execution.
What are Gemini prediction markets?
Gemini’s Predictions help article describes binary event contracts paying $1 for a correct outcome and $0 otherwise. It identifies U.S. users, spot accounts and USD balances for the described experience. Check the current account instructions and restrictions; a general U.S.-only statement does not prove that every person or market category is eligible.
Record the legal entity, account arrangement and particular contract before comparing venues. Access through an intermediary can involve different fees or account terms from direct access.
A limit-price order is not automatically a maker order
The help article describes limit-price orders. The Predictions fee schedule separately distinguishes liquidity-taking fills from orders that rest and later provide liquidity. An order can match immediately for one portion while the remainder rests.
That means the price limit and the liquidity role answer different questions. The limit constrains the price you accept. Maker or taker treatment depends on how the trade matches. Do not label an entire order “maker” merely because you typed a limit price.
| Observation | Meaning for the record |
|---|---|
| Matches immediately | Identify the executed taker quantity |
| Rests without a match | Track an outstanding order, not a completed position |
| Resting quantity later matches | Identify the executed maker quantity |
| Remaining quantity is canceled | Distinguish cancellation from a filled trade |
Standard fees versus the current maker waiver
The inspected schedule applies its stated terms to contracts listed on or after March 18, 2026, with a separate earlier schedule linked for older listings. It calculates fees as rate × contracts × price × (1 − price), with rates of 0.0175 for makers and 0.07 for takers, rounding upward to a cent. It also warns that third-party FCM fees can differ.
A separate maker fee-free program covers qualifying executed maker-side trades from September 2 through December 31, 2026. The inspected terms require good standing, exclude Gemini Titan affiliates and remain subject to exchange rules. Gemini may modify or end the program.
Do not turn that program into a claim that every trade is free. Confirm the dates, participant eligibility, market and actual fill role. A posted order that never executes is also different from a qualifying executed maker trade.
An original mixed-fill fee example
Suppose a fictional order for 100 contracts at $0.50 has 40 contracts match immediately and 60 rest, then fill later at the same price. Assume the published standard rates apply, the two portions are each assessed once, and no intermediary charges or rebates apply.
| Portion | Calculation | Rounded fee |
|---|---|---|
| 40 taker contracts | 0.07 × 40 × 0.50 × 0.50 | $0.70 |
| 60 maker contracts | 0.0175 × 60 × 0.50 × 0.50 | $0.27 |
| Standard-schedule illustration | $0.70 + $0.27 | $0.97 |
If the maker portion instead qualifies for the inspected waiver, its maker fee would be $0, leaving $0.70 in this illustration. On $50 of principal, that would mean $50.70 total, before any other applicable charges. This is a controlled comparison, not a quote for a real order.
Actual fill grouping, prices, rounding, eligibility and intermediary terms can affect a transaction. Reconcile the execution record rather than assuming that a single estimate applies to all fills.
Fees, rebates and liquidity rewards are separate
The Build on Predictions page describes several trading programs. A fee waiver changes a qualifying charge; a rebate and a liquidity reward have their own conditions. Do not subtract an advertised reward from an order’s cost before confirming eligibility and the amount actually credited.
Keep separate records for trade principal, fees paid and later credits. A rewards calculation is not a prediction that a position will profit or that an exit will be available.
Closing time and resolution are different
The help article distinguishes the end of trading from later determination of the result. It directs users to Event Asset Details for the outcome source and says uncertain or delayed information can postpone resolution under the rulebook.
For each contract, record the event definition, observation window, deadline, named source and exceptional-case terms. A price chart, public headline or expected end time is not a substitute for that contract’s resolution criteria.
A hypothetical market that closes at noon but awaits an official report at 2 p.m. illustrates the distinction: trading can end before the result is known. That example is not a Gemini service-time promise. Check the actual event details and status.
A Gemini prediction-market research checklist
- Account: direct or intermediary access, agreement and current eligibility.
- Contract: listing date, exact outcome, source and timing.
- Order: price limit, immediately filled quantity and resting quantity.
- Fees: applicable schedule, maker/taker roles and rounding.
- Programs: waiver or reward dates, qualification and actual credits.
- Resolution: close time, official result and transaction record.
For other account and exchange arrangements, see our Coinbase guide and FanDuel Predicts guide. Alphascope’s market news can support evidence gathering; the contract terms and official source determine the result.