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Polymarket CLARITY Act markets can ask different questions: Senate passage, enactment, or a particular vote. A probability for one milestone is not automatically the probability of another. Check the bill scope, required action, deadline and clarifications before comparing prices.
This guide reviews official contract examples and Congress.gov on October 13, 2026. It explains how to read the propositions; it is not a live odds feed, a forecast that the bill will pass, or a legal-eligibility determination for using a platform.
Which CLARITY Act does the contract mean?
Congress.gov identifies H.R.3633 in the 119th Congress as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025. Keep the bill number and Congress together when researching it. A title containing 2025 can still appear in a contract with a 2026 deadline; those years describe different fields.
The tracker read on October 13 displayed Passed House and a September 15, 2026 action concerning reconsideration of a cloture vote on a motion to proceed. That observation is dated, not a continuously updated legal-status claim. Open the tracker’s latest Actions and Text when you need the current record, rather than treating an older summary as a final enacted version.
A headline that a bill “advanced” leaves the action unspecified. Find the actual chamber, bill identity, action and timestamp. The same headline can be relevant news for a forecast without establishing the milestone required for settlement.
The H.R.3633 enactment example
The official H.R.3633 signed-into-law-in-2026 contract sets a December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline and names Congress.gov’s tracker and other official government information, while permitting credible reporting. Its original rule refers to both chambers and signing into law.
Read the displayed July 28 clarification too: it treats the date of enactment under any mechanism as the relevant date, whether or not the President personally signed the bill. Do not narrow that updated rule to a photographed signature ceremony merely because the headline says “signed.”
Save the clarification with the original rule and the date you read it. A copied title is a weaker research record than the full proposition and its subsequent context.
The Senate-passage example has a broader scope
The official Senate passes Clarity Act by...? market asks for Senate passage by the selected date at 11:59 PM ET. Its rule defines qualifying crypto market-structure legislation through a comprehensive framework, allocation of federal oversight and digital-asset classifications; it is not limited to the bill named in the headline.
The rule excludes stablecoin-only legislation and other narrowly defined measures. It says House passage and a later presidential signature are not relevant to that market’s required Senate milestone. Its sources are official Senate information and credible reporting.
Read the selected deadline as well as the shared event title. Some date rows can be historical while another remains relevant to your question. A generic “CLARITY Act odds” screenshot can omit both the scope and the date that make the number meaningful.
A contract comparison you can inspect
| Field | Enactment example | Senate example |
|---|---|---|
| Bill scope | Named H.R.3633 | Qualifying market-structure legislation under its definition |
| Milestone | Enactment, including the displayed clarification | Senate passage |
| Deadline | December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET | The selected date, 11:59 PM ET |
| Evidence | Named official tracker and permitted sources | Official Senate information and permitted reporting |
These are two inspected examples, not a template that overrides another market’s terms. A third contract about a senator’s vote, an amendment, or an earlier deadline needs its own comparison record.
For an original hypothetical, imagine qualifying legislation passes the Senate before a Senate contract’s deadline, but the named bill in a separate enactment contract never becomes law before its deadline. Those propositions can have different outcomes without a calculation error. This is a scope-and-milestone example, not a prediction of Congress’s next action.
Match the news item to the action it establishes
Use four questions when reading an update: Which measure? Which chamber? Which action? When did it occur? A committee event, an amendment, a procedural motion and final passage are different records. Avoid replacing that detail with the word “passed.”
For example, a report that a vote has been scheduled establishes a planned event. It does not establish the vote result. A report about a procedural motion may explain why market prices moved, while still failing to establish either Senate passage or enactment. Read the official action rather than infer an outcome from the direction of a price change.
If two reports disagree, preserve their dates and look for the underlying roll call, action record or official announcement. The final market determination remains the venue’s process under its rules; this guide does not adjudicate a resolution.
Where to check Polymarket CLARITY Act odds
Use the official contract links above for the proposition and quote you intend to inspect. Record the contract identifier, selected date, quote type, time and size. A displayed probability, last trade and executable bid or ask can differ.
Alphascope’s CLARITY Act topic feed is a discovery surface for events matched from its data feed. Coverage can vary or be empty. An empty feed is not evidence that every venue has no relevant market, and a listed event is not an account-eligibility check. Read the actual venue rules and quotes.
Do not add probabilities for nested “by” deadlines as if each represented an exclusive outcome. Our cumulative deadline lesson uses fictional inputs to explain that arithmetic. Its assumptions require the same event definition; they cannot be silently applied to contracts with different bills or milestones.
A milestone-reading worksheet
Download the CLARITY Act market worksheet. It keeps the bill identity, milestone, rule, clarification, cutoff, evidence and quote in separate fields. Use a separate copy for each contract so a changed condition is visible.
A useful original note might read: “This quote refers to Senate passage of legislation meeting the market’s definition by the selected cutoff. It does not price H.R.3633 enactment by year end.” That communicates what a number means without turning it into a broader legislative or legal claim.
Keep the source publication timestamp separate from an action’s effective date and from your quote timestamp. A report published after a cutoff can discuss an earlier action. The applicable rule determines which fact and time matter.
A bill market is not a platform-access ruling
A contract about legislation and a question about using Polymarket in a particular location have different scopes. This article does not establish what a proposed or enacted bill means for an individual user’s legal obligations or access.
The linked Polymarket.com examples are from the international product, whose current page directs US users to the separate US product. Our Polymarket access guide explains the product distinction and account-review messages using official sources.
Alphascope supports prediction-market research. A precise proposition and dated evidence are more useful than treating every CLARITY-related price or headline as the same event.