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For Metaculus AGI forecasts, start with the original general AI question and the separate weakly general AI question. They forecast different milestones. Neither is a universal definition of artificial general intelligence or a promise that a system will arrive on the displayed date.
Reviewed November 8, 2026 against the public question pages and their Question Info panels. Open those pages for current estimates; this guide does not freeze a changing forecast into an apparently live headline.
Which Metaculus AGI question do you need?
| Destination | Use it to investigate | Do not confuse it with |
|---|---|---|
| Weakly general AI, question 3479 | The earlier, specifically defined weak-AI milestone | The stronger general-AI criteria |
| General AI, question 5121 | A separate milestone with its own capability requirements | A company’s marketing use of “AGI” |
| AGI 2030 Readiness Index | A distinct index of readiness-related forecasts | A single arrival-date forecast |
Use the official AGI question feed to find related questions about developers, consequences and subsequent milestones. Preserve the question number when sharing a forecast: titles and popular shorthand can hide differences in definitions.
Weak AGI and general AGI have different tests
Question 3479 describes a unified system meeting four requirements: a specified Turing-test standard, a 90% Winograd-style language-reasoning result, SAT mathematics performance at the 75th percentile from exam images, and exploration of all 24 rooms of Montezuma’s Revenge within a specified play-time budget. Read the original for the full conditions and resolution procedure.
Question 5121 instead includes a two-hour adversarial test involving multiple media, a robotic model-assembly task, broad question-answering performance and a specified APPS programming threshold. Its Question Info panel distinguishes current criteria from older wording in Fine Print. Quoting superseded criteria can change the event you think is being forecast.
For both questions, a system’s public description and the stipulated evidence or adjudication process matter. One impressive demonstration or benchmark headline does not automatically settle the entire question. This is why “a model passed a test” and “this forecast has resolved” are separate claims.
Read a distribution, not just a date
A date forecast expresses uncertainty about timing. If a hypothetical distribution had a median in 2032, that would place half its probability on each side of that point; it would not mean arrival is certain in 2032. A probability before January 1, 2030 answers a different question from the year containing the median.
Inspect the page’s current forecast label, uncertainty interval, timeline and status. Record the time you read it. Do not mix a historical chart point with today’s summary or treat a question’s scheduled close date as the expected arrival date. Metaculus’s FAQ explains question types, aggregation and resolution.
A useful AGI forecast comparison worksheet
- Identity: question URL and number.
- Event: weak AGI, general AGI, deployment or another specified milestone.
- Evidence: capabilities required, permitted demonstrations and decision procedure.
- Estimate: displayed aggregate, date range and observation timestamp.
- Comparison: the same event and cutoff on the other source, or an explicit mismatch.
For example, a fictional “60% by 2030” estimate for a weak milestone and “30% by 2030” for a stronger milestone do not demonstrate disagreement. Different outcomes can have different probabilities. First align definitions; then investigate whether evidence, participant judgment or timing explains any remaining gap.
For a worked example of combining prior probabilities with new evidence, read our base rate neglect guide.
Use the forecast as a research input
Metaculus is a forecasting platform, not an executable exchange quote. A probability does not establish a tradable price or a profitable position elsewhere. For broader product context, see Metaculus vs Alphascope. For technical access, our Metaculus API guide explains permissions and unavailable aggregates.
Alphascope’s market news and forecast research can help investigate relevant developments. When comparing a news claim with an AGI forecast, return to the original question’s criteria before deciding what the news changes.